AI benchmark tape
Benchmark Live AI capital allocation same brief, frozen portfolios, real returns AI Positioning Aggressive 89.5/100 As of July 10, 2026. Growth-led risk seeking Model Agreement Tight 3.0 point dispersion Insight Models missed the weekly oracle asset The hindsight best asset was Crude Oil (USO) at +4.84%. 0 of 6 models held it, with +0.00% average allocation. Crowded Position Semiconductors 18.7% 8 models hold SMH Biggest Shift Taiwan Equities up 15.4 pp vs prior monthly round Live MTM Grok 4.5 0.3% not final Latest Monthly Claude Opus 4.8 led 3.1% vs S&P 2.2% Full Monthly History Claude Fable 5 leads score 6.3 across 1/11
Data Prices Jul 9 61/61 audited

One-month rounds

All Available Monthly History

Context across every resolved one-month round. Fair model-vs-model rankings use equal-run comparison sets.

Monthly track

Full-History Monthly Scores

Resolved monthly rounds only.

11 resolved rounds compared4 full-history models ranked2 short-history models separatedNewest included round: CB-2026-06-09-1M
All resolved rounds

Full-History Model Scores

Higher benchmark score is better. Calculation.

Grok 4.3
Claude Opus 4.7
Gemini 3.1 Pro
GPT-5.5
S&P 500
Max possible What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio. hindsight best asset

Higher benchmark score is better.

Grok 4.3 xAI · 11/11 scored rounds
2.5
Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic · 11/11 scored rounds
1.0
Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 11/11 scored rounds
-7.7
GPT-5.5 OpenAI · 11/11 scored rounds
-14.0
S&P 500 S&P 500 · 11/11 scored rounds
-3.6
Max possible Hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio
What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio. 100.0
11 resolved rounds compared4 full-history models ranked2 short-history models separatedNewest included round: CB-2026-06-09-1M
Return context

Average Return Details

Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.

xAI Grok 4.3
0.46%
Anthropic Claude Opus 4.7
0.18%
Google Gemini 3.1 Pro
-1.42%
OpenAI GPT-5.5
-2.57%
S&P S&P 500
-0.66%
MAX Max possible What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio.
18.36%
Not ranked yet Short-history models

Shown for transparency; not included in the main ranking until they have all 11 completed rounds.

Anthropic
Claude Fable 5 Anthropic · short history · 1/11 scored rounds
Score (1/11)
6.3
Avg return
1.58%
Anthropic
Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic · short history · 8/11 scored rounds
Score (8/11)
0.5
Avg return
0.11%
Short history: models missing resolved rounds are shown but cannot lead the full-history score.
Scope

What This Scorecard Includes

This all-history view can include unequal model histories. Use Benchmark Comparison Sets for the fair headline ranking where every model has the exact same included rounds.

Comparison sets