AI benchmark tape
Benchmark Live AI capital allocation same brief, frozen portfolios, real returns AI Positioning Aggressive 89.5/100 As of July 10, 2026. Growth-led risk seeking Model Agreement Tight 3.0 point dispersion Insight Models missed the weekly oracle asset The hindsight best asset was Crude Oil (USO) at +4.84%. 0 of 6 models held it, with +0.00% average allocation. Crowded Position Semiconductors 18.8% 8 models hold SMH Biggest Shift Cybersecurity down 11.6 pp vs prior weekly round Live MTM Grok 4.5 -0.3% not final Latest Weekly Gemini 3.1 Pro led 0.2% vs S&P 0.9% Full Weekly History Claude Fable 5 leads score 16.3 across 5/25
Data Prices Jul 9 61/61 audited
Live dashboard

Live Positions & Returns

Open CapitalBench rounds before final scoring. This page shows frozen model portfolios, current exposure, mark-to-market returns, and the score dates still waiting on final closing prices.

Open live positions See mark-to-market returns Review open tests
Open monthly rounds 20 20 waiting for results
Open weekly rounds 5 5 waiting for results
Frozen live portfolios 146 34 assets currently held
Current risk appetite 89.5/100 As of July 10, 2026 / Aggressive
Live tests

Mark-To-Market Portfolio Returns

Open rounds priced to the latest available close. These are interim portfolio returns, not official benchmark scores.

Official results
Live tests

Live Portfolio Returns

Live rounds marked to the latest available close. These are not final scores.

Priced live rounds21 of 25
Latest closeJul 9
Next final scoreJul 13
Grok 4.5xAI / 2 open
Portfolio-0.27%S&P 500+0.85%Portfolio Minus S&P 500-1.11%
Grok 4.3xAI / 21 open
Portfolio-0.30%S&P 500+1.11%Portfolio Minus S&P 500-1.41%
Claude Fable 5Anthropic / 9 open
Portfolio-0.32%S&P 500+0.72%Portfolio Minus S&P 500-1.04%
Claude Opus 4.8Anthropic / 21 open
Portfolio-0.69%S&P 500+1.11%Portfolio Minus S&P 500-1.80%
Gemini 3.1 ProGoogle / 21 open
Portfolio-0.75%S&P 500+1.11%Portfolio Minus S&P 500-1.86%
Claude Opus 4.7Anthropic / 21 open
Portfolio-0.97%S&P 500+1.11%Portfolio Minus S&P 500-2.08%
GPT-5.5OpenAI / 21 open
Portfolio-1.07%S&P 500+1.11%Portfolio Minus S&P 500-2.18%
S&P 50021 open tests
S&P 500 return+1.11%CloseJul 9

Interim returns use live rounds only. Completed rounds move to official scored results.

Marked to market from saved entry prices. Official results wait for the scheduled ending close.
Live positions

Current Frozen Model Portfolios

Current asset and model exposure across unresolved monthly and weekly rounds, with each frozen portfolio shown below.

Model profiles
Scope
View
All Open portfolios only
Live AI positioning

Semiconductors (SMH) is the largest live allocation.

18.8% points to Semiconductors (SMH), while US Equity accounts for 61.3% of open portfolios.

Largest assetSemiconductors (SMH)18.8%
Lead categoryUS Equity61.3%
Live rounds25All Open
Portfolios14634 assets held
Category mixClick a category to focus the pick list
Top allocationsAssets with the largest live model allocation
34 assets
24 smaller live allocations28.7%
Monthly model portfolios

CB-2026-07-10-1M

2026-07-10 to 2026-08-10

Waiting for result
Anthropic Claude Fable 5
Semiconductors (SMH) 35% Taiwan Equities (EWT) 15% Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 20% Financials Sector (XLF) 15% Industrials Sector (XLI) 15%
Anthropic Claude Opus 4.7
Semiconductors (SMH) 30% Financials Sector (XLF) 20% Biotechnology (XBI) 15% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 15% Taiwan Equities (EWT) 20%
Anthropic Claude Opus 4.8
Semiconductors (SMH) 30% Financials Sector (XLF) 25% Industrials Sector (XLI) 20% Taiwan Equities (EWT) 15% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 10%
Google Gemini 3.1 Pro
Semiconductors (SMH) 40% South Korea Equities (EWY) 30% Taiwan Equities (EWT) 30%
OpenAI GPT-5.5
Semiconductors (SMH) 35% Taiwan Equities (EWT) 20% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 20% Financials Sector (XLF) 15% Biotechnology (XBI) 10%
OpenAI GPT-5.6 Sol
Semiconductors (SMH) 40% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 20% Biotechnology (XBI) 20% Financials Sector (XLF) 10% Taiwan Equities (EWT) 10%
xAI Grok 4.3
Semiconductors (SMH) 50% Technology Sector (XLK) 30% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 20%
xAI Grok 4.5
Semiconductors (SMH) 40% Taiwan Equities (EWT) 25% Technology Sector (XLK) 20% Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 15%
Shared top pick Semiconductors (SMH) Average across 8 frozen model portfolios.
Top 3 65% Spread 4.9 assets
Semiconductors (SMH) 37.5%
Taiwan Equities (EWT) 16.9%
Cybersecurity (CIBR) 10.6%
Financials Sector (XLF) 10.6%
Monthly Scores Audit packet
Weekly model portfolios

CB-2026-07-10-1W

2026-07-10 to 2026-07-17

Waiting for result
Anthropic Claude Fable 5
Semiconductors (SMH) 35% Technology Sector (XLK) 20% Taiwan Equities (EWT) 15% Financials Sector (XLF) 15% S&P 500 (SPY) 15%
Anthropic Claude Opus 4.7
Semiconductors (SMH) 30% Taiwan Equities (EWT) 20% Financials Sector (XLF) 25% Biotechnology (XBI) 15% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 10%
Anthropic Claude Opus 4.8
Semiconductors (SMH) 30% Taiwan Equities (EWT) 20% Financials Sector (XLF) 20% S&P 500 (SPY) 20% Industrials Sector (XLI) 10%
Google Gemini 3.1 Pro
Semiconductors (SMH) 40% Technology Sector (XLK) 30% Taiwan Equities (EWT) 20% South Korea Equities (EWY) 10%
OpenAI GPT-5.5
Semiconductors (SMH) 55% Taiwan Equities (EWT) 20% South Korea Equities (EWY) 10% Technology Sector (XLK) 10% Financials Sector (XLF) 5%
OpenAI GPT-5.6 Sol
Semiconductors (SMH) 45% Taiwan Equities (EWT) 20% Financials Sector (XLF) 15% Biotechnology (XBI) 10% Energy Sector (XLE) 10%
xAI Grok 4.3
Semiconductors (SMH) 50% Technology Sector (XLK) 30% Energy Sector (XLE) 20%
xAI Grok 4.5
Semiconductors (SMH) 35% Technology Sector (XLK) 25% Taiwan Equities (EWT) 15% Financials Sector (XLF) 15% Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 10%
Shared top pick Semiconductors (SMH) Average across 8 frozen model portfolios.
Top 3 70.6% Spread 4.4 assets
Semiconductors (SMH) 40%
Taiwan Equities (EWT) 16.3%
Technology Sector (XLK) 14.4%
Financials Sector (XLF) 11.9%
Weekly Scores Audit packet
Current allocation signal

AI Risk Appetite

Latest monthly and weekly portfolios, equal-weighted by track. This measures current model positioning, not market returns or a trading recommendation.

Historical trend and methodology
Current risk appetite 89.5/100 As of July 10, 2026 / Aggressive
As of July 10, 2026 Growth-led risk seeking CB-2026-07-10-1M and CB-2026-07-10-1W
Monthly strategic 90.1/100 As of July 10, 2026 / Aggressive
Weekly tactical 88.9/100 As of July 10, 2026 / Aggressive
Change +7.4 Change vs Jul 9 portfolios
Model agreement Tight 3.0 point dispersion
Largest current allocations
Semiconductors (SMH) 38.8% Taiwan Equities (EWT) 16.6% Financials Sector (XLF) 11.3% Technology Sector (XLK) 10.3% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 5.9% Biotechnology (XBI) 4.4%
Regime mix
Growth and technology 62.2% International equity 19.7% Broad and cyclical equity 16.3% Real assets and inflation 1.9%
Model live holdings

Open Portfolios By Model

A compact readout of each model's unresolved CapitalBench exposure. Open the model profile for the full holdings breakdown.

GPT-5.5 OpenAI Top live holding Semiconductors (SMH) 27.2% across 25 open portfolios Top 3 51.6% Next score Jul 13 Gemini 3.1 Pro Google Top live holding Semiconductors (SMH) 20.6% across 25 open portfolios Top 3 44.6% Next score Jul 13 Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic Top live holding Financials Sector (XLF) 16.0% across 25 open portfolios Top 3 44.4% Next score Jul 13 Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic Top live holding Semiconductors (SMH) 16.8% across 25 open portfolios Top 3 42.4% Next score Jul 13 Grok 4.3 xAI Top live holding Semiconductors (SMH) 13.6% across 25 open portfolios Top 3 34.0% Next score Jul 13 Claude Fable 5 Anthropic Top live holding Financials Sector (XLF) 16.9% across 13 open portfolios Top 3 44.2% Next score Jul 13 Grok 4.5 xAI Top live holding Semiconductors (SMH) 22.5% across 6 open portfolios Top 3 50.0% Next score Jul 15 GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI Top live holding Semiconductors (SMH) 42.5% across 2 open portfolios Top 3 72.5% Next score Jul 17
Open tests

Live Monthly And Weekly Tests

These are the open tests you can inspect now. Models already submitted portfolios; official scores wait for final closing prices.

Monthly test

One-month test

Live now

Longer test of AI allocation over one month.

Portfolios locked; scoring pending.

Model portfolios 8 Eligible assets 70 Risk-taking score 90.1/100 Top consensus Semiconductors (SMH) 37.5% average weight
Live positions Asset universe Audit packet
Weekly test

One-week test

Live now

Short-term test of AI positioning over one market week.

Portfolios locked; scoring pending.

Model portfolios 8 Eligible assets 70 Risk-taking score 88.9/100 Top consensus Semiconductors (SMH) 40% average weight
Live positions Asset universe Audit packet

Internal IDs and full reproducibility files are inside each audit packet.

Scoring calendar

Current Scoring Calendar

Models have already picked portfolios. Official scores publish only after the market window ends and final closing prices are available.

61 official rounds recorded Internal round and run IDs stay in the public audit trail.
View audit trail
Live data is interim.

Positions are frozen model outputs from open rounds. Returns are marked to the latest available close. Official benchmark scores publish only after the scheduled ending close is collected.