Final benchmark result
CB-2026-07-02-1W
One-week market allocation evaluation round.
Gemini 3.1 Pro Won This Weekly Round
Scored from 2026-07-02 close to 2026-07-09 close. This page shows raw portfolio return, S&P 500 comparison, and the maximum possible return for the saved asset universe.
Portfolio Return And S&P 500
All return bars use one shared scale.
Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.
Ranked in the same order as the chart.
Not model portfolios.
Benchmark return over the same scoring window
100% Crude Oil (USO) hindsight ceiling
Score Formula
100 matches the oracle return; negative scores preserve the size of a loss.
Official Scores
Rows show portfolio return, S&P 500 comparison, and regret versus the maximum possible return.
| Gemini 3.1 Pro | SP500 | 4 | 0.16% | 0.93% | -0.77 pp | 4.68% | |
| Claude Fable 5 | Anthropic | HEALTHCARE | 5 | -0.14% | 0.93% | -1.07 pp | 4.98% |
| GPT-5.5 | OpenAI | BIOTECH | 5 | -0.23% | 0.93% | -1.16 pp | 5.07% |
| Claude Opus 4.8 | Anthropic | HEALTHCARE | 5 | -0.67% | 0.93% | -1.60 pp | 5.51% |
| Claude Opus 4.7 | Anthropic | HEALTHCARE | 5 | -0.74% | 0.93% | -1.67 pp | 5.58% |
| Grok 4.3 | xAI | HEALTHCARE | 3 | -1.50% | 0.93% | -2.43 pp | 6.33% |
What The Insight Engine Flags For This Round
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
AI consensus portfolio scored -10.8 versus the oracle
If the weekly model allocations were averaged into one consensus portfolio, it returned -0.52% versus +0.93% for the S&P 500 and +4.84% for the hindsight best asset.
Consensus means the average of model allocations in the same round. CapitalBench Score compares that return with the hindsight-best eligible asset for that exact scoring window.
- Consensus Portfolio Return
- -0.52%
- Average Model Return
- -0.52%
- Consensus Capitalbench Score
- -10.8
Weekly round had +8.29% asset dispersion
The best scored asset returned +4.84%, the worst returned -3.45%, and +42.86% of the universe was positive. The S&P 500 ranked 20 out of 70 options.
Asset dispersion is the gap between the best and worst eligible assets in the same round. Wider dispersion makes missed allocation choices more costly.
- Oracle Return
- +4.84%
- Worst Asset Return
- -3.45%
- Positive Universe Share
- +42.9%
Models missed the weekly oracle asset
The hindsight best asset was Crude Oil (USO) at +4.84%. 0 of 6 models held it, with +0.00% average allocation.
Oracle means the best eligible asset in hindsight for that round. Models do not know it when portfolios are frozen.
- Oracle Asset Holder Count
- 0
- Average Oracle Asset Allocation
- 0.00%
- 1 Inputs saved
7 public audit hashes are available.
- 2 Portfolios collected
6 valid model portfolios.
- 3 Start priced
70 starting-price rows published.
- 4 Scores published
The benchmark result is available for this completed round.
Final Score Published
This round has model portfolios, starting prices, ending prices, and final scores.
6 valid portfolios
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
70 saved choices
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Published
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
7 artifacts published.
official-20260702
43,390 shared prompt characters.
70 entry and exit price rows support the final score.
Where Models Concentrated In This Round
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this weekly round.
Healthcare Sector (XLV)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
What Moved During The Round
The table shows the top realized asset returns over the official scoring window. These returns explain the opportunity set behind the model scores.
| 1 | Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 4.84% | 103.98 | 109.01 |
| 2 | China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 4.48% | 50.91 | 53.19 |
| 3 | Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 3.96% | 90.67 | 94.26 |
| 4 | Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 3.63% | 26.74 | 27.71 |
| 5 | Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 3.47% | 15.87 | 16.42 |
| 6 | Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 3.20% | 61.85 | 63.83 |
| 7 | Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 3.01% | 53.22 | 54.82 |
| 8 | Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2.70% | 34.87 | 35.81 |
| 9 | Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2.64% | 180.59 | 185.35 |
| 10 | Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2.61% | 592.29 | 607.73 |
| 11 | Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2.57% | 12.86 | 13.19 |
| 12 | South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2.56% | 180.14 | 184.75 |
Portfolio attribution How Each Holding Contributed
Contribution equals submitted allocation multiplied by the asset return over the scoring window.
How Each Holding Contributed
Contribution equals submitted allocation multiplied by the asset return over the scoring window.
| Claude Fable 5 | Healthcare Sector (XLV) | 30% | -0.96% | -0.29% |
| Claude Fable 5 | Financials Sector (XLF) | 20% | -0.14% | -0.03% |
| Claude Fable 5 | US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | 20% | -1.60% | -0.32% |
| Claude Fable 5 | Biotechnology (XBI) | 15% | 2.38% | 0.36% |
| Claude Fable 5 | S&P 500 (SPY) | 15% | 0.93% | 0.14% |
| Claude Opus 4.7 | Healthcare Sector (XLV) | 30% | -0.96% | -0.29% |
| Claude Opus 4.7 | Financials Sector (XLF) | 25% | -0.14% | -0.04% |
| Claude Opus 4.7 | US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | 20% | -1.60% | -0.32% |
| Claude Opus 4.7 | Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | 15% | -0.66% | -0.10% |
| Claude Opus 4.7 | Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | 10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| Claude Opus 4.8 | Healthcare Sector (XLV) | 30% | -0.96% | -0.29% |
| Claude Opus 4.8 | Financials Sector (XLF) | 25% | -0.14% | -0.04% |
| Claude Opus 4.8 | US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | 20% | -1.60% | -0.32% |
| Claude Opus 4.8 | US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | 15% | -0.17% | -0.03% |
| Claude Opus 4.8 | Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | 10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro | S&P 500 (SPY) | 40% | 0.93% | 0.37% |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro | Healthcare Sector (XLV) | 20% | -0.96% | -0.19% |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro | Financials Sector (XLF) | 20% | -0.14% | -0.03% |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro | Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | 20% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| GPT-5.5 | Biotechnology (XBI) | 30% | 2.38% | 0.71% |
| GPT-5.5 | Healthcare Sector (XLV) | 25% | -0.96% | -0.24% |
| GPT-5.5 | Financials Sector (XLF) | 20% | -0.14% | -0.03% |
| GPT-5.5 | Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | 15% | -3.45% | -0.52% |
| GPT-5.5 | US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | 10% | -1.60% | -0.16% |
| Grok 4.3 | Healthcare Sector (XLV) | 40% | -0.96% | -0.38% |
| Grok 4.3 | Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | 30% | -2.11% | -0.63% |
| Grok 4.3 | US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | 30% | -1.60% | -0.48% |
Saved model-facing context Prompt And Input Packet
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a
small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
Prompt And Input Packet
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
Shared Model-Facing Prompt Packet 43,390 characters
# CapitalBench Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round.
CapitalBench evaluates how state-of-the-art language models make saved market allocation decisions from the same frozen information set. Your response will be compared against other participating models after the one-week outcome window resolves.
The scoring timeline is central to the task: the portfolio is measured from the adjusted close on the entry date to the adjusted close on the exit date, calculated after regular trading ends on the exit date. Optimize for facts, catalysts, positioning, liquidity, and risks that can plausibly affect prices before that exit close.
Optimize only for the portfolio you expect to perform best over this close-to-close one-week scoring window. Use longer-horizon facts only when they are likely to affect prices before the exit close.
Briefing-bias discipline: the briefing may group facts by broad asset area and include a mechanical price-context table. Treat inclusion, section order, grouping, row count, and price-context table order as context, not recommendation signals.
Price-history discipline: trailing returns are descriptive data, not forecasts. Use price history as one input, not as a standalone reason to allocate to an option. When recent performance matters to a holding, compare it with the briefing's catalysts, macro context, valuation or fundamental facts if supplied, volatility, drawdown, and reversal risk before the exit close.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected one-week realized portfolio return, measured from the entry date to the exit date, relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Use the briefing, option list, and any included market-data table as the common information set. The official leaderboard ranks each model by realized weighted portfolio return relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Multi-shot stability analysis, if run, is reported separately and does not change the official leaderboard.
Your portfolio is scored by the weighted realized percentage return over the one-week round window. Alpha is portfolio return minus S&P 500 return. Returns are calculated from adjusted close prices when available.
You may use your internal learned knowledge and general market priors. Do not browse, use tools, request updated market data, use external retrieval, or intentionally rely on facts, market prices, news, or events dated after the research cutoff. If your internal knowledge conflicts with the briefing, prioritize the briefing.
You must allocate exactly 100% across allowed options. Use only the holding count, allocation increment, minimum allocation, and cash or benchmark constraints stated in the round metadata. Do not short, use leverage, or choose an option outside the allowed option list.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, prose, citations, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<one allowed option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"confidence": <number from 0 to 1>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 sentence allocation rationale>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 sentence rationale>",
"key_risks": [
"<risk 1>",
"<risk 2>"
]
}
Rules:
- portfolio must contain only IDs from the allowed option list.
- allocation_pct values must be integers in the stated allocation increment.
- allocation_pct values must sum to exactly 100.
- confidence must be between 0 and 1.
- confidence should reflect your confidence that this is the best portfolio decision under the round constraints.
- portfolio_rationale and rationale_summary are required and should be concise.
- If a holding rationale cites momentum, recent returns, or trailing performance, do not present price history alone as independent evidence. Mention any independent support present in the briefing, or state that support is limited, and include the relevant reversal or positioning risk in key_risks.
- key_risks must be a list of 2-5 concrete risks that could cause the portfolio to underperform; do not only list generic market risk.
- Do not provide a ranked list, backup portfolio, second-best portfolio, or alternative recommendation.
- Do not include financial-advice disclaimers. This is a benchmark response, not advice to a person.
- The JSON object must contain no extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-07-02-1W
- Decision date: 2026-07-02
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-07-03T06:47:08Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-07-03T07:30:00Z
- Horizon: one week
- Entry date: 2026-07-02
- Exit date: 2026-07-09
- Entry rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench July 2, 2026 Briefing
Data status: facts below use public information available through 2026-07-03T06:47:08Z. Equity index closes are for Thursday, July 2, 2026. Friday, July 3, 2026 is a U.S. market holiday for observed Independence Day. Mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative context is generated separately and follows this briefing in the model input. Price history is descriptive context, not a forecast.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market Snapshot
- On Thursday, July 2, 2026, the S&P 500 closed at 7,483.24, up 0.01 point. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 52,900.07, up 594.83 points, or 1.1%. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,832.67, down 207.36 points, or 0.8%. The Russell 2000 closed at 2,996.11, down 16.48 points, or 0.5%.
- For the holiday-shortened week through July 2, the S&P 500 was up 1.8%, the Dow was up 2.0%, the Nasdaq was up 2.1%, and the Russell 2000 was down 0.5%. Year to date, the S&P 500 was up 9.3%, the Dow was up 10.1%, the Nasdaq was up 11.1%, and the Russell 2000 was up 20.7%.
- VIX was listed at 16.15 after the July 2 close, down 2.65%.
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yield data after the July 2 close showed 4.490%. The U.S. 2-year yield was 4.181%, and the U.S. 30-year yield was 4.980%.
- WTI crude oil front-month settlement for July 2 was $68.69 per barrel. Gold continuous-contract settlement for July 2 was $4,125.70 per ounce.
- Bitcoin was near $61,449 in early July 3 U.S. hours, with previous close listed at $61,407.
## Labor, Inflation, And Policy
- June 2026 nonfarm payroll employment changed little at +57,000. The unemployment rate was 4.2%. Labor force participation decreased to 61.5%, and the employment-population ratio was 59.0%.
- June average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month over month and 3.5% year over year. The average workweek was unchanged at 34.3 hours.
- April payroll growth was revised from +179,000 to +148,000, and May was revised from +172,000 to +129,000. The combined revision was -74,000.
- June industry payroll changes included professional and business services +36,000, social assistance +25,000, health care +22,000, and leisure and hospitality -61,000.
- May 2026 JOLTS data showed 7.594 million job openings, a 4.6% openings rate, a 3.3% hires rate, a 3.2% total separations rate, a 1.9% quits rate, and a 1.1% layoffs/discharges rate.
- May personal income rose 0.7%, disposable personal income rose 0.7%, PCE rose 0.7%, and real PCE rose 0.3%. The personal saving rate was 3.0%.
- May PCE prices rose 0.4% month over month and 4.1% year over year. Core PCE prices rose 0.3% month over month and 3.4% year over year.
- On June 17, 2026, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75% by a 12-0 vote. The FOMC statement described economic activity as expanding at a solid pace and inflation as elevated relative to the 2% goal.
## Business Activity And Supply Chains
- June 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI was 53.3%, down 0.7 percentage point from May. New Orders were 56.0%, Production was 52.2%, Employment was 49.7%, Supplier Deliveries were 57.4%, and Prices were 73.0%.
- ISM listed electrical components, electronic components, memory, semiconductors, and hot-rolled steel among June manufacturing commodities in short supply.
- ISM Services PMI for June 2026 is scheduled for Monday, July 6, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
## Company And Sector Calendar
- Tesla reported Q2 2026 production of 451,758 vehicles, deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, and energy storage deployments of 13.5 GWh. Tesla scheduled Q2 2026 financial results for after market close on Wednesday, July 22, 2026, with a webcast at 5:30 p.m. ET.
- Tesla's company-compiled Q2 delivery consensus, published before the actual delivery update, listed total deliveries at 406,024 and energy storage deployments at 13.8 GWh. Tesla stated it does not endorse those analyst estimates.
- TSMC listed Q2 2026 guidance of $39.0 billion to $40.2 billion in net revenue, 65.5% to 67.5% gross margin, and 56.5% to 58.5% operating margin. TSMC's quiet period is July 6 through July 15, and its Q2 2026 earnings conference is scheduled for Thursday, July 16 at 14:00 Taiwan time / 2:00 a.m. Eastern Time.
- TSMC listed Monthly Sales - June 2026 for Friday, July 10, 2026.
- JPMorganChase scheduled Q2 2026 results for Tuesday, July 14, 2026, with results expected around 7:00 a.m. ET and a call at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- Wells Fargo listed Q2 2026 quarterly earnings for Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
- The next BEA Personal Income and Outlays release, covering June 2026, is scheduled for Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
## Round Timing
- CB-2026-07-02-1W uses July 2, 2026 as the entry-date close and July 9, 2026 as the exit-date close.
- CB-2026-07-02-1M uses July 2, 2026 as the entry-date close and July 31, 2026 as the exit-date close. The one-month calendar target falls on Sunday, August 2, 2026, so the July 31 close is the last trading-session close before that target.
## Full-Universe Trailing Returns
# Full-Universe Price, Risk, And Benchmark Context
This table is mechanically calculated from adjusted close data. It is sorted in the option order from `options.yaml`, not by performance. CASH is shown as 0.00%.
Price-history note: trailing returns are descriptive context, not forecasts. Treat recent gains or losses as one input alongside catalysts, macro context, volatility, drawdown, benchmark-relative risk, and any valuation or fundamental facts supplied in the briefing.
Benchmark-relative values are asset return minus SPY return over the same window. Beta and correlation use available one-year daily adjusted-close returns.
- Source: tiingo_eod_adj_close; yahoo_chart_adjclose fallback for rows marked in CSV message
- As-of date requested: 2026-07-02
- Failed options: 0
| option_id | symbol | option_group | as_of_price_date | return_7d | return_30d | return_6m | return_1y | return_vs_sp500_30d | volatility_30d | max_drawdown_30d | up_day_share_30d | distance_from_52w_high | beta_to_sp500_1y | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CASH | | cash | 2026-07-02 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 1.69% | 0.00% | 0.00% | | | 0.00 | cash |
| SHORT_TREASURY | BIL | cash_and_short_duration | 2026-07-02 | 0.12% | 0.35% | 1.77% | 3.87% | 2.04% | 0.24% | 0.00% | 76.19% | 0.00% | -0.00 | pass |
| SP500 | SPY | us_broad_market | 2026-07-02 | 1.43% | -1.69% | 9.60% | 21.37% | 0.00% | 17.82% | -4.49% | 42.86% | -1.69% | 1.00 | pass |
| TOTAL_US_MARKET | VTI | us_broad_market | 2026-07-02 | 1.60% | -1.21% | 10.31% | 22.11% | 0.48% | 17.54% | -4.36% | 42.86% | -1.21% | 1.02 | pass |
| NASDAQ100 | QQQ | us_growth_and_technology | 2026-07-02 | -0.53% | -4.39% | 16.50% | 30.00% | -2.70% | 33.84% | -7.03% | 38.10% | -4.39% | 1.36 | pass |
| LARGE_GROWTH | IWF | us_style_factor | 2026-07-02 | 2.59% | -5.47% | 2.91% | 14.86% | -3.78% | 24.18% | -7.86% | 42.86% | -5.83% | 1.24 | pass |
| LARGE_VALUE | IWD | us_style_factor | 2026-07-02 | 0.98% | 3.45% | 17.12% | 27.73% | 5.15% | 15.30% | -2.40% | 57.14% | 0.00% | 0.74 | pass |
| MID_CAP | IJH | us_size_factor | 2026-07-02 | -0.48% | 1.41% | 14.27% | 21.55% | 3.10% | 16.24% | -2.40% | 57.14% | -1.32% | 1.01 | pass |
| SMALL_CAP | IWM | us_size_factor | 2026-07-02 | -0.44% | 2.27% | 20.11% | 36.03% | 3.97% | 21.65% | -3.55% | 57.14% | -0.96% | 1.27 | pass |
| SMALL_VALUE | IWN | us_style_factor | 2026-07-02 | 0.55% | 3.32% | 21.80% | 37.44% | 5.01% | 17.05% | -2.60% | 52.38% | -0.17% | 1.04 | pass |
| DIVIDEND | SCHD | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-02 | 1.35% | 0.86% | 18.73% | 22.96% | 2.55% | 12.08% | -2.93% | 47.62% | -0.55% | 0.31 | pass |
| LOW_VOL | SPLV | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-02 | 2.44% | 7.31% | 8.95% | 7.76% | 9.00% | 14.92% | -1.89% | 66.67% | -0.19% | 0.07 | pass |
| MOMENTUM | MTUM | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-02 | -6.71% | -2.81% | 25.50% | 34.56% | -1.11% | 49.66% | -8.31% | 52.38% | -8.31% | 1.49 | pass |
| TECHNOLOGY | XLK | us_sector | 2026-07-02 | -2.16% | -8.78% | 25.45% | 43.16% | -7.09% | 43.91% | -10.89% | 42.86% | -8.78% | 1.66 | pass |
| COMMUNICATIONS | XLC | us_sector | 2026-07-02 | 3.81% | -3.24% | -5.70% | 3.28% | -1.55% | 19.01% | -6.79% | 47.62% | -8.20% | 0.69 | pass |
| CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY | XLY | us_sector | 2026-07-02 | 3.33% | -0.20% | -0.64% | 7.30% | 1.49% | 23.07% | -4.21% | 57.14% | -5.57% | 1.18 | pass |
| CONSUMER_STAPLES | XLP | us_sector | 2026-07-02 | 1.25% | 4.58% | 10.78% | 6.24% | 6.28% | 17.75% | -3.58% | 52.38% | -4.39% | -0.03 | pass |
| HEALTHCARE | XLV | us_sector | 2026-07-02 | 5.21% | 12.34% | 6.19% | 23.08% | 14.03% | 20.78% | -3.34% | 66.67% | 0.00% | 0.37 | pass |
| FINANCIALS | XLF | us_sector | 2026-07-02 | 4.06% | 8.46% | 2.13% | 7.34% | 10.16% | 15.99% | -1.44% | 61.90% | -0.53% | 0.66 | pass |
| INDUSTRIALS | XLI | us_sector | 2026-07-02 | -0.11% | 5.84% | 17.03% | 25.73% | 7.53% | 23.69% | -3.69% | 61.90% | -0.71% | 0.97 | pass |
| ENERGY | XLE | us_sector | 2026-07-02 | -1.61% | -7.52% | 18.19% | 26.26% | -5.82% | 21.63% | -9.46% | 42.86% | -14.32% | -0.15 | pass |
| MATERIALS | XLB | us_sector | 2026-07-02 | 0.33% | 1.33% | 13.70% | 15.84% | 3.02% | 22.93% | -3.93% | 57.14% | -2.21% | 0.77 | pass |
| UTILITIES | XLU | us_sector | 2026-07-02 | -0.20% | 4.90% | 7.40% | 15.81% | 6.60% | 16.20% | -3.10% | 71.43% | -2.84% | 0.18 | pass |
| REAL_ESTATE | XLRE | us_sector | 2026-07-02 | 0.20% | 3.64% | 12.37% | 10.63% | 5.33% | 19.58% | -3.31% | 61.90% | -1.24% | 0.31 | pass |
| INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY | IEF | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-02 | -0.38% | 0.20% | -0.12% | 2.85% | 1.90% | 5.55% | -0.76% | 57.14% | -2.38% | 0.08 | pass |
| LONG_TREASURY | TLT | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-02 | -1.74% | 0.21% | 0.48% | 2.09% | 1.90% | 9.91% | -1.86% | 47.62% | -4.08% | 0.13 | pass |
| TIPS | TIP | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-02 | -0.10% | -0.53% | 1.24% | 3.28% | 1.16% | 4.57% | -0.97% | 52.38% | -0.66% | 0.07 | pass |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT | LQD | credit | 2026-07-02 | -0.44% | 0.09% | 0.86% | 3.94% | 1.79% | 5.43% | -0.79% | 47.62% | -0.92% | 0.18 | pass |
| HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT | HYG | credit | 2026-07-02 | 0.25% | 0.22% | 1.78% | 5.23% | 1.92% | 3.81% | -0.59% | 42.86% | 0.00% | 0.23 | pass |
| AGGREGATE_BONDS | AGG | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-02 | -0.31% | 0.23% | 0.73% | 3.97% | 1.93% | 4.31% | -0.55% | 57.14% | -1.13% | 0.10 | pass |
| DEVELOPED_EX_US | VEA | international_equity | 2026-07-02 | -0.49% | -1.57% | 12.82% | 27.48% | 0.12% | 24.53% | -4.85% | 57.14% | -2.18% | 1.07 | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKETS | VWO | international_equity | 2026-07-02 | 0.41% | -3.40% | 7.61% | 21.66% | -1.70% | 24.17% | -5.67% | 42.86% | -3.59% | 1.07 | pass |
| EUROPE | VGK | international_equity | 2026-07-02 | 1.73% | 1.81% | 7.60% | 18.39% | 3.50% | 18.95% | -2.55% | 57.14% | 0.00% | 0.93 | pass |
| JAPAN | EWJ | international_equity | 2026-07-02 | -0.27% | 0.07% | 15.14% | 30.47% | 1.77% | 27.31% | -5.14% | 66.67% | -3.95% | 1.15 | pass |
| CHINA | MCHI | international_equity | 2026-07-02 | 0.26% | -10.39% | -17.66% | -5.68% | -8.70% | 17.31% | -11.15% | 38.10% | -22.56% | 0.91 | pass |
| INDIA | INDA | international_equity | 2026-07-02 | 0.26% | 3.19% | -9.16% | -10.86% | 4.88% | 15.99% | -1.71% | 57.14% | -11.17% | 0.60 | pass |
| GOLD | IAU | commodities | 2026-07-02 | 2.38% | -8.19% | -4.97% | 22.43% | -6.49% | 30.59% | -11.17% | 47.62% | -23.69% | 0.63 | pass |
| BROAD_COMMODITIES | PDBC | commodities | 2026-07-02 | -1.49% | -11.74% | 19.50% | 23.77% | -10.04% | 16.94% | -12.58% | 28.57% | -16.08% | -0.16 | pass |
| SEMICONDUCTORS | SMH | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-02 | -7.00% | -6.31% | 58.66% | 111.25% | -4.62% | 71.13% | -11.45% | 52.38% | -11.45% | 2.25 | pass |
| SOFTWARE | IGV | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-02 | 10.39% | -10.64% | -8.80% | -13.99% | -8.94% | 34.19% | -19.05% | 33.33% | -20.55% | 1.18 | pass |
| BROAD_AI_TECH | AIQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-02 | -3.63% | -11.82% | 20.26% | 42.34% | -10.12% | 50.56% | -12.52% | 47.62% | -11.82% | 1.84 | pass |
| AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS | ARKQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-02 | 3.31% | -9.81% | 8.02% | 46.16% | -8.11% | 45.09% | -12.87% | 33.33% | -11.04% | 2.14 | pass |
| CYBERSECURITY | CIBR | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-02 | 8.38% | -3.79% | 28.62% | 22.33% | -2.09% | 29.69% | -11.74% | 38.10% | -3.79% | 1.09 | pass |
| SOLAR | TAN | clean_energy | 2026-07-02 | -2.68% | -22.07% | 9.15% | 52.05% | -20.38% | 50.12% | -22.07% | 33.33% | -23.82% | 1.75 | pass |
| METALS_MINING | XME | commodities | 2026-07-02 | -3.32% | -20.80% | -2.10% | 50.56% | -19.11% | 41.07% | -21.38% | 33.33% | -20.80% | 1.67 | pass |
| EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 | RSP | us_broad_market | 2026-07-02 | 1.49% | 2.71% | 12.34% | 18.55% | 4.41% | 13.57% | -2.04% | 57.14% | 0.00% | 0.74 | pass |
| BIOTECH | XBI | healthcare_and_biotech | 2026-07-02 | 5.85% | 25.72% | 32.17% | 90.11% | 27.41% | 29.03% | -3.74% | 71.43% | 0.00% | 1.05 | pass |
| REGIONAL_BANKS | KRE | us_industry | 2026-07-02 | 0.33% | 8.51% | 16.34% | 22.93% | 10.21% | 21.26% | -3.08% | 76.19% | -1.52% | 0.83 | pass |
| AEROSPACE_DEFENSE | ITA | us_industry | 2026-07-02 | 4.55% | 8.77% | 11.94% | 35.04% | 10.47% | 27.32% | -3.00% | 61.90% | -0.82% | 1.00 | pass |
| CANADA | EWC | country_equity | 2026-07-02 | 0.26% | -2.39% | 7.11% | 26.39% | -0.69% | 14.21% | -3.20% | 57.14% | -2.39% | 0.78 | pass |
| UNITED_KINGDOM | EWU | country_equity | 2026-07-02 | 2.79% | 1.93% | 7.59% | 23.10% | 3.62% | 17.01% | -2.39% | 42.86% | -1.73% | 0.73 | pass |
| AUSTRALIA | EWA | country_equity | 2026-07-02 | 0.57% | -3.34% | 7.61% | 9.16% | -1.65% | 20.23% | -4.78% | 47.62% | -5.87% | 0.94 | pass |
| SOUTH_KOREA | EWY | country_equity | 2026-07-02 | -12.13% | -16.03% | 76.23% | 155.99% | -14.34% | 97.68% | -18.34% | 38.10% | -17.82% | 2.59 | pass |
| TAIWAN | EWT | country_equity | 2026-07-02 | -0.05% | -2.10% | 61.90% | 86.69% | -0.41% | 49.16% | -8.51% | 52.38% | -5.98% | 1.69 | pass |
| BRAZIL | EWZ | country_equity | 2026-07-02 | 0.73% | -2.86% | 7.94% | 24.44% | -1.16% | 21.58% | -5.84% | 38.10% | -16.71% | 0.99 | pass |
| MEXICO | EWW | country_equity | 2026-07-02 | -0.04% | -3.12% | 9.98% | 26.78% | -1.43% | 23.81% | -5.91% | 38.10% | -5.69% | 0.91 | pass |
| SOUTH_AFRICA | EZA | country_equity | 2026-07-02 | 1.31% | -4.59% | -5.76% | 27.01% | -2.90% | 36.51% | -8.61% | 52.38% | -19.85% | 1.58 | pass |
| MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS | MBB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-02 | -0.48% | 0.15% | 1.04% | 5.13% | 1.84% | 4.77% | -0.67% | 61.90% | -1.15% | 0.11 | pass |
| MUNICIPAL_BONDS | MUB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-02 | 0.19% | 0.64% | 1.85% | 6.35% | 2.34% | 2.25% | -0.35% | 52.38% | 0.00% | 0.07 | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS | EMB | credit | 2026-07-02 | 0.04% | 0.35% | 2.52% | 9.64% | 2.05% | 6.12% | -1.02% | 42.86% | -0.23% | 0.30 | pass |
| INTERNATIONAL_BONDS | BNDX | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-02 | -0.29% | 0.31% | 1.23% | 2.31% | 2.01% | 3.17% | -0.62% | 52.38% | -0.83% | 0.11 | pass |
| SILVER | SLV | commodities | 2026-07-02 | 5.08% | -19.08% | -16.32% | 65.52% | -17.38% | 54.84% | -23.84% | 47.62% | -47.90% | 1.64 | pass |
| COPPER | CPER | commodities | 2026-07-02 | 0.84% | -8.15% | 6.60% | 15.66% | -6.46% | 31.51% | -10.57% | 52.38% | -8.15% | 1.22 | pass |
| AGRICULTURE | DBA | commodities | 2026-07-02 | -0.67% | -1.40% | 4.62% | 7.09% | 0.29% | 10.91% | -3.24% | 38.10% | -6.93% | 0.06 | pass |
| OIL | USO | commodities | 2026-07-02 | -4.88% | -24.25% | 50.78% | 37.56% | -22.56% | 38.93% | -26.69% | 33.33% | -32.02% | -0.98 | pass |
| US_DOLLAR | UUP | currencies | 2026-07-02 | -0.49% | 2.09% | 4.54% | 9.15% | 3.78% | 5.32% | -0.67% | 57.14% | -0.67% | -0.13 | pass |
| EURO | FXE | currencies | 2026-07-02 | 0.57% | -1.60% | -2.06% | -2.45% | 0.09% | 5.90% | -2.32% | 52.38% | -4.71% | 0.12 | pass |
| YEN | FXY | currencies | 2026-07-02 | 0.46% | -0.84% | -2.80% | -11.20% | 0.86% | 4.46% | -1.74% | 23.81% | -11.20% | 0.07 | pass |
| BITCOIN_ETF | IBIT | crypto_proxies | 2026-07-02 | 4.03% | -8.36% | -31.55% | -44.14% | -6.66% | 45.58% | -12.51% | 38.10% | -51.09% | 1.77 | pass |
| ETHEREUM_ETF | ETHA | crypto_proxies | 2026-07-02 | 9.54% | -10.57% | -45.46% | -34.89% | -8.88% | 73.93% | -18.36% | 38.10% | -64.85% | 2.91 | pass |
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Base Instructions prompt.md
# CapitalBench Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round.
CapitalBench evaluates how state-of-the-art language models make saved market allocation decisions from the same frozen information set. Your response will be compared against other participating models after the one-week outcome window resolves.
The scoring timeline is central to the task: the portfolio is measured from the adjusted close on the entry date to the adjusted close on the exit date, calculated after regular trading ends on the exit date. Optimize for facts, catalysts, positioning, liquidity, and risks that can plausibly affect prices before that exit close.
Optimize only for the portfolio you expect to perform best over this close-to-close one-week scoring window. Use longer-horizon facts only when they are likely to affect prices before the exit close.
Briefing-bias discipline: the briefing may group facts by broad asset area and include a mechanical price-context table. Treat inclusion, section order, grouping, row count, and price-context table order as context, not recommendation signals.
Price-history discipline: trailing returns are descriptive data, not forecasts. Use price history as one input, not as a standalone reason to allocate to an option. When recent performance matters to a holding, compare it with the briefing's catalysts, macro context, valuation or fundamental facts if supplied, volatility, drawdown, and reversal risk before the exit close.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected one-week realized portfolio return, measured from the entry date to the exit date, relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Use the briefing, option list, and any included market-data table as the common information set. The official leaderboard ranks each model by realized weighted portfolio return relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Multi-shot stability analysis, if run, is reported separately and does not change the official leaderboard.
Your portfolio is scored by the weighted realized percentage return over the one-week round window. Alpha is portfolio return minus S&P 500 return. Returns are calculated from adjusted close prices when available.
You may use your internal learned knowledge and general market priors. Do not browse, use tools, request updated market data, use external retrieval, or intentionally rely on facts, market prices, news, or events dated after the research cutoff. If your internal knowledge conflicts with the briefing, prioritize the briefing.
You must allocate exactly 100% across allowed options. Use only the holding count, allocation increment, minimum allocation, and cash or benchmark constraints stated in the round metadata. Do not short, use leverage, or choose an option outside the allowed option list.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, prose, citations, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<one allowed option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"confidence": <number from 0 to 1>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 sentence allocation rationale>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 sentence rationale>",
"key_risks": [
"<risk 1>",
"<risk 2>"
]
}
Rules:
- portfolio must contain only IDs from the allowed option list.
- allocation_pct values must be integers in the stated allocation increment.
- allocation_pct values must sum to exactly 100.
- confidence must be between 0 and 1.
- confidence should reflect your confidence that this is the best portfolio decision under the round constraints.
- portfolio_rationale and rationale_summary are required and should be concise.
- If a holding rationale cites momentum, recent returns, or trailing performance, do not present price history alone as independent evidence. Mention any independent support present in the briefing, or state that support is limited, and include the relevant reversal or positioning risk in key_risks.
- key_risks must be a list of 2-5 concrete risks that could cause the portfolio to underperform; do not only list generic market risk.
- Do not provide a ranked list, backup portfolio, second-best portfolio, or alternative recommendation.
- Do not include financial-advice disclaimers. This is a benchmark response, not advice to a person.
- The JSON object must contain no extra fields. Round Manifest manifest.yaml
round_id: CB-2026-07-02-1W
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-07-02-1W
description: One-week market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-07-02'
decision_deadline: '2026-07-03T07:30:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v1.0
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 5
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
entry_rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-07-02'
exit_date: '2026-07-09'
created_at: '2026-07-03T06:49:23.729120+00:00'
notes: 'Post-close July 2, 2026 one-week portfolio round. Fable 5 is included in the official provider run per operator instruction. Friday July 3, 2026 is the observed Independence Day market holiday; the one-week exit snapshot uses the July 9 close.' Briefing briefing.md
# CapitalBench July 2, 2026 Briefing
Data status: facts below use public information available through 2026-07-03T06:47:08Z. Equity index closes are for Thursday, July 2, 2026. Friday, July 3, 2026 is a U.S. market holiday for observed Independence Day. Mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative context is generated separately and follows this briefing in the model input. Price history is descriptive context, not a forecast.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market Snapshot
- On Thursday, July 2, 2026, the S&P 500 closed at 7,483.24, up 0.01 point. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 52,900.07, up 594.83 points, or 1.1%. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,832.67, down 207.36 points, or 0.8%. The Russell 2000 closed at 2,996.11, down 16.48 points, or 0.5%.
- For the holiday-shortened week through July 2, the S&P 500 was up 1.8%, the Dow was up 2.0%, the Nasdaq was up 2.1%, and the Russell 2000 was down 0.5%. Year to date, the S&P 500 was up 9.3%, the Dow was up 10.1%, the Nasdaq was up 11.1%, and the Russell 2000 was up 20.7%.
- VIX was listed at 16.15 after the July 2 close, down 2.65%.
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yield data after the July 2 close showed 4.490%. The U.S. 2-year yield was 4.181%, and the U.S. 30-year yield was 4.980%.
- WTI crude oil front-month settlement for July 2 was $68.69 per barrel. Gold continuous-contract settlement for July 2 was $4,125.70 per ounce.
- Bitcoin was near $61,449 in early July 3 U.S. hours, with previous close listed at $61,407.
## Labor, Inflation, And Policy
- June 2026 nonfarm payroll employment changed little at +57,000. The unemployment rate was 4.2%. Labor force participation decreased to 61.5%, and the employment-population ratio was 59.0%.
- June average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month over month and 3.5% year over year. The average workweek was unchanged at 34.3 hours.
- April payroll growth was revised from +179,000 to +148,000, and May was revised from +172,000 to +129,000. The combined revision was -74,000.
- June industry payroll changes included professional and business services +36,000, social assistance +25,000, health care +22,000, and leisure and hospitality -61,000.
- May 2026 JOLTS data showed 7.594 million job openings, a 4.6% openings rate, a 3.3% hires rate, a 3.2% total separations rate, a 1.9% quits rate, and a 1.1% layoffs/discharges rate.
- May personal income rose 0.7%, disposable personal income rose 0.7%, PCE rose 0.7%, and real PCE rose 0.3%. The personal saving rate was 3.0%.
- May PCE prices rose 0.4% month over month and 4.1% year over year. Core PCE prices rose 0.3% month over month and 3.4% year over year.
- On June 17, 2026, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75% by a 12-0 vote. The FOMC statement described economic activity as expanding at a solid pace and inflation as elevated relative to the 2% goal.
## Business Activity And Supply Chains
- June 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI was 53.3%, down 0.7 percentage point from May. New Orders were 56.0%, Production was 52.2%, Employment was 49.7%, Supplier Deliveries were 57.4%, and Prices were 73.0%.
- ISM listed electrical components, electronic components, memory, semiconductors, and hot-rolled steel among June manufacturing commodities in short supply.
- ISM Services PMI for June 2026 is scheduled for Monday, July 6, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
## Company And Sector Calendar
- Tesla reported Q2 2026 production of 451,758 vehicles, deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, and energy storage deployments of 13.5 GWh. Tesla scheduled Q2 2026 financial results for after market close on Wednesday, July 22, 2026, with a webcast at 5:30 p.m. ET.
- Tesla's company-compiled Q2 delivery consensus, published before the actual delivery update, listed total deliveries at 406,024 and energy storage deployments at 13.8 GWh. Tesla stated it does not endorse those analyst estimates.
- TSMC listed Q2 2026 guidance of $39.0 billion to $40.2 billion in net revenue, 65.5% to 67.5% gross margin, and 56.5% to 58.5% operating margin. TSMC's quiet period is July 6 through July 15, and its Q2 2026 earnings conference is scheduled for Thursday, July 16 at 14:00 Taiwan time / 2:00 a.m. Eastern Time.
- TSMC listed Monthly Sales - June 2026 for Friday, July 10, 2026.
- JPMorganChase scheduled Q2 2026 results for Tuesday, July 14, 2026, with results expected around 7:00 a.m. ET and a call at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- Wells Fargo listed Q2 2026 quarterly earnings for Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
- The next BEA Personal Income and Outlays release, covering June 2026, is scheduled for Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
## Round Timing
- CB-2026-07-02-1W uses July 2, 2026 as the entry-date close and July 9, 2026 as the exit-date close.
- CB-2026-07-02-1M uses July 2, 2026 as the entry-date close and July 31, 2026 as the exit-date close. The one-month calendar target falls on Sunday, August 2, 2026, so the July 31 close is the last trading-session close before that target. Full-Universe Trailing Returns market_data/universe_trailing_returns.md
# Full-Universe Price, Risk, And Benchmark Context
This table is mechanically calculated from adjusted close data. It is sorted in the option order from `options.yaml`, not by performance. CASH is shown as 0.00%.
Price-history note: trailing returns are descriptive context, not forecasts. Treat recent gains or losses as one input alongside catalysts, macro context, volatility, drawdown, benchmark-relative risk, and any valuation or fundamental facts supplied in the briefing.
Benchmark-relative values are asset return minus SPY return over the same window. Beta and correlation use available one-year daily adjusted-close returns.
- Source: tiingo_eod_adj_close; yahoo_chart_adjclose fallback for rows marked in CSV message
- As-of date requested: 2026-07-02
- Failed options: 0
| option_id | symbol | option_group | as_of_price_date | return_7d | return_30d | return_6m | return_1y | return_vs_sp500_30d | volatility_30d | max_drawdown_30d | up_day_share_30d | distance_from_52w_high | beta_to_sp500_1y | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CASH | | cash | 2026-07-02 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 1.69% | 0.00% | 0.00% | | | 0.00 | cash |
| SHORT_TREASURY | BIL | cash_and_short_duration | 2026-07-02 | 0.12% | 0.35% | 1.77% | 3.87% | 2.04% | 0.24% | 0.00% | 76.19% | 0.00% | -0.00 | pass |
| SP500 | SPY | us_broad_market | 2026-07-02 | 1.43% | -1.69% | 9.60% | 21.37% | 0.00% | 17.82% | -4.49% | 42.86% | -1.69% | 1.00 | pass |
| TOTAL_US_MARKET | VTI | us_broad_market | 2026-07-02 | 1.60% | -1.21% | 10.31% | 22.11% | 0.48% | 17.54% | -4.36% | 42.86% | -1.21% | 1.02 | pass |
| NASDAQ100 | QQQ | us_growth_and_technology | 2026-07-02 | -0.53% | -4.39% | 16.50% | 30.00% | -2.70% | 33.84% | -7.03% | 38.10% | -4.39% | 1.36 | pass |
| LARGE_GROWTH | IWF | us_style_factor | 2026-07-02 | 2.59% | -5.47% | 2.91% | 14.86% | -3.78% | 24.18% | -7.86% | 42.86% | -5.83% | 1.24 | pass |
| LARGE_VALUE | IWD | us_style_factor | 2026-07-02 | 0.98% | 3.45% | 17.12% | 27.73% | 5.15% | 15.30% | -2.40% | 57.14% | 0.00% | 0.74 | pass |
| MID_CAP | IJH | us_size_factor | 2026-07-02 | -0.48% | 1.41% | 14.27% | 21.55% | 3.10% | 16.24% | -2.40% | 57.14% | -1.32% | 1.01 | pass |
| SMALL_CAP | IWM | us_size_factor | 2026-07-02 | -0.44% | 2.27% | 20.11% | 36.03% | 3.97% | 21.65% | -3.55% | 57.14% | -0.96% | 1.27 | pass |
| SMALL_VALUE | IWN | us_style_factor | 2026-07-02 | 0.55% | 3.32% | 21.80% | 37.44% | 5.01% | 17.05% | -2.60% | 52.38% | -0.17% | 1.04 | pass |
| DIVIDEND | SCHD | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-02 | 1.35% | 0.86% | 18.73% | 22.96% | 2.55% | 12.08% | -2.93% | 47.62% | -0.55% | 0.31 | pass |
| LOW_VOL | SPLV | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-02 | 2.44% | 7.31% | 8.95% | 7.76% | 9.00% | 14.92% | -1.89% | 66.67% | -0.19% | 0.07 | pass |
| MOMENTUM | MTUM | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-02 | -6.71% | -2.81% | 25.50% | 34.56% | -1.11% | 49.66% | -8.31% | 52.38% | -8.31% | 1.49 | pass |
| TECHNOLOGY | XLK | us_sector | 2026-07-02 | -2.16% | -8.78% | 25.45% | 43.16% | -7.09% | 43.91% | -10.89% | 42.86% | -8.78% | 1.66 | pass |
| COMMUNICATIONS | XLC | us_sector | 2026-07-02 | 3.81% | -3.24% | -5.70% | 3.28% | -1.55% | 19.01% | -6.79% | 47.62% | -8.20% | 0.69 | pass |
| CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY | XLY | us_sector | 2026-07-02 | 3.33% | -0.20% | -0.64% | 7.30% | 1.49% | 23.07% | -4.21% | 57.14% | -5.57% | 1.18 | pass |
| CONSUMER_STAPLES | XLP | us_sector | 2026-07-02 | 1.25% | 4.58% | 10.78% | 6.24% | 6.28% | 17.75% | -3.58% | 52.38% | -4.39% | -0.03 | pass |
| HEALTHCARE | XLV | us_sector | 2026-07-02 | 5.21% | 12.34% | 6.19% | 23.08% | 14.03% | 20.78% | -3.34% | 66.67% | 0.00% | 0.37 | pass |
| FINANCIALS | XLF | us_sector | 2026-07-02 | 4.06% | 8.46% | 2.13% | 7.34% | 10.16% | 15.99% | -1.44% | 61.90% | -0.53% | 0.66 | pass |
| INDUSTRIALS | XLI | us_sector | 2026-07-02 | -0.11% | 5.84% | 17.03% | 25.73% | 7.53% | 23.69% | -3.69% | 61.90% | -0.71% | 0.97 | pass |
| ENERGY | XLE | us_sector | 2026-07-02 | -1.61% | -7.52% | 18.19% | 26.26% | -5.82% | 21.63% | -9.46% | 42.86% | -14.32% | -0.15 | pass |
| MATERIALS | XLB | us_sector | 2026-07-02 | 0.33% | 1.33% | 13.70% | 15.84% | 3.02% | 22.93% | -3.93% | 57.14% | -2.21% | 0.77 | pass |
| UTILITIES | XLU | us_sector | 2026-07-02 | -0.20% | 4.90% | 7.40% | 15.81% | 6.60% | 16.20% | -3.10% | 71.43% | -2.84% | 0.18 | pass |
| REAL_ESTATE | XLRE | us_sector | 2026-07-02 | 0.20% | 3.64% | 12.37% | 10.63% | 5.33% | 19.58% | -3.31% | 61.90% | -1.24% | 0.31 | pass |
| INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY | IEF | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-02 | -0.38% | 0.20% | -0.12% | 2.85% | 1.90% | 5.55% | -0.76% | 57.14% | -2.38% | 0.08 | pass |
| LONG_TREASURY | TLT | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-02 | -1.74% | 0.21% | 0.48% | 2.09% | 1.90% | 9.91% | -1.86% | 47.62% | -4.08% | 0.13 | pass |
| TIPS | TIP | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-02 | -0.10% | -0.53% | 1.24% | 3.28% | 1.16% | 4.57% | -0.97% | 52.38% | -0.66% | 0.07 | pass |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT | LQD | credit | 2026-07-02 | -0.44% | 0.09% | 0.86% | 3.94% | 1.79% | 5.43% | -0.79% | 47.62% | -0.92% | 0.18 | pass |
| HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT | HYG | credit | 2026-07-02 | 0.25% | 0.22% | 1.78% | 5.23% | 1.92% | 3.81% | -0.59% | 42.86% | 0.00% | 0.23 | pass |
| AGGREGATE_BONDS | AGG | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-02 | -0.31% | 0.23% | 0.73% | 3.97% | 1.93% | 4.31% | -0.55% | 57.14% | -1.13% | 0.10 | pass |
| DEVELOPED_EX_US | VEA | international_equity | 2026-07-02 | -0.49% | -1.57% | 12.82% | 27.48% | 0.12% | 24.53% | -4.85% | 57.14% | -2.18% | 1.07 | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKETS | VWO | international_equity | 2026-07-02 | 0.41% | -3.40% | 7.61% | 21.66% | -1.70% | 24.17% | -5.67% | 42.86% | -3.59% | 1.07 | pass |
| EUROPE | VGK | international_equity | 2026-07-02 | 1.73% | 1.81% | 7.60% | 18.39% | 3.50% | 18.95% | -2.55% | 57.14% | 0.00% | 0.93 | pass |
| JAPAN | EWJ | international_equity | 2026-07-02 | -0.27% | 0.07% | 15.14% | 30.47% | 1.77% | 27.31% | -5.14% | 66.67% | -3.95% | 1.15 | pass |
| CHINA | MCHI | international_equity | 2026-07-02 | 0.26% | -10.39% | -17.66% | -5.68% | -8.70% | 17.31% | -11.15% | 38.10% | -22.56% | 0.91 | pass |
| INDIA | INDA | international_equity | 2026-07-02 | 0.26% | 3.19% | -9.16% | -10.86% | 4.88% | 15.99% | -1.71% | 57.14% | -11.17% | 0.60 | pass |
| GOLD | IAU | commodities | 2026-07-02 | 2.38% | -8.19% | -4.97% | 22.43% | -6.49% | 30.59% | -11.17% | 47.62% | -23.69% | 0.63 | pass |
| BROAD_COMMODITIES | PDBC | commodities | 2026-07-02 | -1.49% | -11.74% | 19.50% | 23.77% | -10.04% | 16.94% | -12.58% | 28.57% | -16.08% | -0.16 | pass |
| SEMICONDUCTORS | SMH | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-02 | -7.00% | -6.31% | 58.66% | 111.25% | -4.62% | 71.13% | -11.45% | 52.38% | -11.45% | 2.25 | pass |
| SOFTWARE | IGV | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-02 | 10.39% | -10.64% | -8.80% | -13.99% | -8.94% | 34.19% | -19.05% | 33.33% | -20.55% | 1.18 | pass |
| BROAD_AI_TECH | AIQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-02 | -3.63% | -11.82% | 20.26% | 42.34% | -10.12% | 50.56% | -12.52% | 47.62% | -11.82% | 1.84 | pass |
| AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS | ARKQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-02 | 3.31% | -9.81% | 8.02% | 46.16% | -8.11% | 45.09% | -12.87% | 33.33% | -11.04% | 2.14 | pass |
| CYBERSECURITY | CIBR | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-02 | 8.38% | -3.79% | 28.62% | 22.33% | -2.09% | 29.69% | -11.74% | 38.10% | -3.79% | 1.09 | pass |
| SOLAR | TAN | clean_energy | 2026-07-02 | -2.68% | -22.07% | 9.15% | 52.05% | -20.38% | 50.12% | -22.07% | 33.33% | -23.82% | 1.75 | pass |
| METALS_MINING | XME | commodities | 2026-07-02 | -3.32% | -20.80% | -2.10% | 50.56% | -19.11% | 41.07% | -21.38% | 33.33% | -20.80% | 1.67 | pass |
| EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 | RSP | us_broad_market | 2026-07-02 | 1.49% | 2.71% | 12.34% | 18.55% | 4.41% | 13.57% | -2.04% | 57.14% | 0.00% | 0.74 | pass |
| BIOTECH | XBI | healthcare_and_biotech | 2026-07-02 | 5.85% | 25.72% | 32.17% | 90.11% | 27.41% | 29.03% | -3.74% | 71.43% | 0.00% | 1.05 | pass |
| REGIONAL_BANKS | KRE | us_industry | 2026-07-02 | 0.33% | 8.51% | 16.34% | 22.93% | 10.21% | 21.26% | -3.08% | 76.19% | -1.52% | 0.83 | pass |
| AEROSPACE_DEFENSE | ITA | us_industry | 2026-07-02 | 4.55% | 8.77% | 11.94% | 35.04% | 10.47% | 27.32% | -3.00% | 61.90% | -0.82% | 1.00 | pass |
| CANADA | EWC | country_equity | 2026-07-02 | 0.26% | -2.39% | 7.11% | 26.39% | -0.69% | 14.21% | -3.20% | 57.14% | -2.39% | 0.78 | pass |
| UNITED_KINGDOM | EWU | country_equity | 2026-07-02 | 2.79% | 1.93% | 7.59% | 23.10% | 3.62% | 17.01% | -2.39% | 42.86% | -1.73% | 0.73 | pass |
| AUSTRALIA | EWA | country_equity | 2026-07-02 | 0.57% | -3.34% | 7.61% | 9.16% | -1.65% | 20.23% | -4.78% | 47.62% | -5.87% | 0.94 | pass |
| SOUTH_KOREA | EWY | country_equity | 2026-07-02 | -12.13% | -16.03% | 76.23% | 155.99% | -14.34% | 97.68% | -18.34% | 38.10% | -17.82% | 2.59 | pass |
| TAIWAN | EWT | country_equity | 2026-07-02 | -0.05% | -2.10% | 61.90% | 86.69% | -0.41% | 49.16% | -8.51% | 52.38% | -5.98% | 1.69 | pass |
| BRAZIL | EWZ | country_equity | 2026-07-02 | 0.73% | -2.86% | 7.94% | 24.44% | -1.16% | 21.58% | -5.84% | 38.10% | -16.71% | 0.99 | pass |
| MEXICO | EWW | country_equity | 2026-07-02 | -0.04% | -3.12% | 9.98% | 26.78% | -1.43% | 23.81% | -5.91% | 38.10% | -5.69% | 0.91 | pass |
| SOUTH_AFRICA | EZA | country_equity | 2026-07-02 | 1.31% | -4.59% | -5.76% | 27.01% | -2.90% | 36.51% | -8.61% | 52.38% | -19.85% | 1.58 | pass |
| MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS | MBB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-02 | -0.48% | 0.15% | 1.04% | 5.13% | 1.84% | 4.77% | -0.67% | 61.90% | -1.15% | 0.11 | pass |
| MUNICIPAL_BONDS | MUB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-02 | 0.19% | 0.64% | 1.85% | 6.35% | 2.34% | 2.25% | -0.35% | 52.38% | 0.00% | 0.07 | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS | EMB | credit | 2026-07-02 | 0.04% | 0.35% | 2.52% | 9.64% | 2.05% | 6.12% | -1.02% | 42.86% | -0.23% | 0.30 | pass |
| INTERNATIONAL_BONDS | BNDX | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-02 | -0.29% | 0.31% | 1.23% | 2.31% | 2.01% | 3.17% | -0.62% | 52.38% | -0.83% | 0.11 | pass |
| SILVER | SLV | commodities | 2026-07-02 | 5.08% | -19.08% | -16.32% | 65.52% | -17.38% | 54.84% | -23.84% | 47.62% | -47.90% | 1.64 | pass |
| COPPER | CPER | commodities | 2026-07-02 | 0.84% | -8.15% | 6.60% | 15.66% | -6.46% | 31.51% | -10.57% | 52.38% | -8.15% | 1.22 | pass |
| AGRICULTURE | DBA | commodities | 2026-07-02 | -0.67% | -1.40% | 4.62% | 7.09% | 0.29% | 10.91% | -3.24% | 38.10% | -6.93% | 0.06 | pass |
| OIL | USO | commodities | 2026-07-02 | -4.88% | -24.25% | 50.78% | 37.56% | -22.56% | 38.93% | -26.69% | 33.33% | -32.02% | -0.98 | pass |
| US_DOLLAR | UUP | currencies | 2026-07-02 | -0.49% | 2.09% | 4.54% | 9.15% | 3.78% | 5.32% | -0.67% | 57.14% | -0.67% | -0.13 | pass |
| EURO | FXE | currencies | 2026-07-02 | 0.57% | -1.60% | -2.06% | -2.45% | 0.09% | 5.90% | -2.32% | 52.38% | -4.71% | 0.12 | pass |
| YEN | FXY | currencies | 2026-07-02 | 0.46% | -0.84% | -2.80% | -11.20% | 0.86% | 4.46% | -1.74% | 23.81% | -11.20% | 0.07 | pass |
| BITCOIN_ETF | IBIT | crypto_proxies | 2026-07-02 | 4.03% | -8.36% | -31.55% | -44.14% | -6.66% | 45.58% | -12.51% | 38.10% | -51.09% | 1.77 | pass |
| ETHEREUM_ETF | ETHA | crypto_proxies | 2026-07-02 | 9.54% | -10.57% | -45.46% | -34.89% | -8.88% | 73.93% | -18.36% | 38.10% | -64.85% | 2.91 | pass | Rendered Options In Prompt options.yaml rendered for model prompt
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite. Source Options YAML options.yaml
options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite." Round Hashes hashes.json
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} Per-Model Prompt Suffixes 6 model calls
For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-02-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-02-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-7
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-02-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-02-1W
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-02-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-02-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF Parsed provider responses Model Outputs
These are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded
from the public site.
Model Outputs
These are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
Claude Fable 5
anthropic-claude-fable-5
- Confidence
- 0.50
- Run Type
- official
Weak June payrolls and dovish rate implications favor rate-sensitive defensives and financials over stretched tech; healthcare/biotech show fundamental and flow strength, while an SPY sleeve limits benchmark-relative downside.
Tilt toward healthcare, low-vol, and financials on soft labor data and bank earnings positioning, with biotech for rate-cut beta and SPY as ballast; underweight extended semis/tech showing drawdown risk.
- Healthcare Sector (XLV): 30% - Strong recent breadth (66.7% up days), at 52-week high with low beta; defensive tilt fits soft payrolls and slowing labor data, low reversal-drawdown profile.
- Financials Sector (XLF): 20% - Positive pre-positioning into JPMorgan/Wells Fargo Q2 earnings on July 14, steep 2s10s curve supports net interest margins; broad 30d strength with modest volatility.
- US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV): 20% - Rotation toward defensives evidenced by Dow outperformance and weak payrolls; near-zero beta cushions any tech-led pullback while capturing equity upside.
- Biotechnology (XBI): 15% - At 52-week high with 71% up-day share; benefits from falling rate expectations after +57k payrolls; momentum supported by improving financing conditions, though continuation evidence beyond price action is limited.
- S&P 500 (SPY): 15% - Benchmark ballast to control tracking error in a quiet holiday-shortened week.
- Renewed mega-cap tech rally (e.g., strong TSMC June sales July 10 read-through) would leave this defensive tilt lagging SPY
- Hot ISM Services or inflation-related surprise pushes yields up, hurting biotech and low-vol rate-sensitive holdings
- Biotech and healthcare momentum reverses from 52-week highs with limited independent catalyst support in the window
- Pre-earnings de-risking in banks before July 14 could stall financials
Validated JSON
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"cost_usd": 0.27189,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Renewed mega-cap tech rally (e.g., strong TSMC June sales July 10 read-through) would leave this defensive tilt lagging SPY",
"Hot ISM Services or inflation-related surprise pushes yields up, hurting biotech and low-vol rate-sensitive holdings",
"Biotech and healthcare momentum reverses from 52-week highs with limited independent catalyst support in the window",
"Pre-earnings de-risking in banks before July 14 could stall financials"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Strong recent breadth (66.7% up days), at 52-week high with low beta; defensive tilt fits soft payrolls and slowing labor data, low reversal-drawdown profile."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Positive pre-positioning into JPMorgan/Wells Fargo Q2 earnings on July 14, steep 2s10s curve supports net interest margins; broad 30d strength with modest volatility."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "LOW_VOL",
"rationale": "Rotation toward defensives evidenced by Dow outperformance and weak payrolls; near-zero beta cushions any tech-led pullback while capturing equity upside."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "At 52-week high with 71% up-day share; benefits from falling rate expectations after +57k payrolls; momentum supported by improving financing conditions, though continuation evidence beyond price action is limited."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Benchmark ballast to control tracking error in a quiet holiday-shortened week."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Weak June payrolls and dovish rate implications favor rate-sensitive defensives and financials over stretched tech; healthcare/biotech show fundamental and flow strength, while an SPY sleeve limits benchmark-relative downside.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Tilt toward healthcare, low-vol, and financials on soft labor data and bank earnings positioning, with biotech for rate-cut beta and SPY as ballast; underweight extended semis/tech showing drawdown risk.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-02-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"cost_usd": 0.27189,
"input_tokens": 22414,
"latency_seconds": 17.813714747899212,
"output_tokens": 955,
"total_tokens": 23369
}
} Claude Opus 4.7
anthropic-claude-opus-4-7
- Confidence
- 0.55
- Run Type
- official
Tilt defensive with healthcare and low-vol leadership plus financials into bank earnings setup, diversified via equal-weight S&P and short T-bills. Avoids weakening mega-cap tech/semi complex showing sharp reversals.
Defensive-leaning equity mix leveraging recent sector rotation into healthcare, financials, and low-vol, with equal-weight breadth and T-bill ballast to manage tech reversal risk over the one-week window.
- Healthcare Sector (XLV): 30% - Strong defensive leadership with XLV +12.3% 30d and +5.2% 7d; low beta 0.37 offers relative safety in a quiet holiday-shortened week.
- Financials Sector (XLF): 25% - XLF +8.5% 30d with JPM and WFC earnings July 14 providing positioning tailwind; steep curve (30y 4.98%, 2y 4.18%) supports banks.
- US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV): 20% - SPLV +7.3% 30d, low 14.9% vol, and near 52w high; defensive tilt fits quiet post-holiday week with soft payrolls.
- Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP): 15% - RSP avoids mega-cap tech drawdown risk (SMH -7% week, MTUM -6.7%) while retaining broad equity exposure at near 52w high.
- Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL): 10% - Cash-like ballast given soft payrolls (+57k), negative revisions, and elevated core PCE 3.4% creating mixed macro.
- Mega-cap tech rebound could cause equal-weight/defensive tilt to lag SPY
- Bank earnings anticipation could reverse if credit or NII guidance disappoints (though outside window)
- Healthcare momentum reversal after +12% 30d run
- Softer labor data triggering risk-off across cyclicals including financials
Validated JSON
{
"confidence": 0.55,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Mega-cap tech rebound could cause equal-weight/defensive tilt to lag SPY",
"Bank earnings anticipation could reverse if credit or NII guidance disappoints (though outside window)",
"Healthcare momentum reversal after +12% 30d run",
"Softer labor data triggering risk-off across cyclicals including financials"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-7",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Strong defensive leadership with XLV +12.3% 30d and +5.2% 7d; low beta 0.37 offers relative safety in a quiet holiday-shortened week."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "XLF +8.5% 30d with JPM and WFC earnings July 14 providing positioning tailwind; steep curve (30y 4.98%, 2y 4.18%) supports banks."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "LOW_VOL",
"rationale": "SPLV +7.3% 30d, low 14.9% vol, and near 52w high; defensive tilt fits quiet post-holiday week with soft payrolls."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"rationale": "RSP avoids mega-cap tech drawdown risk (SMH -7% week, MTUM -6.7%) while retaining broad equity exposure at near 52w high."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"rationale": "Cash-like ballast given soft payrolls (+57k), negative revisions, and elevated core PCE 3.4% creating mixed macro."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Tilt defensive with healthcare and low-vol leadership plus financials into bank earnings setup, diversified via equal-weight S&P and short T-bills. Avoids weakening mega-cap tech/semi complex showing sharp reversals.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Defensive-leaning equity mix leveraging recent sector rotation into healthcare, financials, and low-vol, with equal-weight breadth and T-bill ballast to manage tech reversal risk over the one-week window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-02-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 22423,
"latency_seconds": 15.552265929058194,
"output_tokens": 817,
"total_tokens": 23240
}
} Claude Opus 4.8
anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- Confidence
- 0.55
- Run Type
- official
Tilt toward defensive and value/financial leadership showing positive breadth and benchmark-relative strength while avoiding stretched, high-volatility mega-cap tech and semis that led the recent selloff; short-duration bills add ballast.
Overweight healthcare, financials, low-vol and value leadership with a cash-like anchor to seek positive alpha versus SPY in a low-catalyst week.
- Healthcare Sector (XLV): 30% - Strong recent leadership (+5.2% 7d, +12.3% 30d, +14% vs SPX) with low beta and defensive tilt; XLV at 52w high with broad participation supports near-term continuation while inflation stays elevated.
- Financials Sector (XLF): 25% - Positive momentum (+4% 7d, +8.5% 30d) with big-bank earnings (JPM, WFC) approaching July 14 driving constructive positioning into the window; steep yield curve supportive.
- US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV): 20% - Defensive factor outperforming (+2.4% 7d, +9% vs SPX 30d) with lowest volatility and small drawdown; ballast given weak payrolls and elevated core PCE.
- US Large-Cap Value (IWD): 15% - Value leadership (+5.15% vs SPX 30d) at 52w high, low beta, cyclical/financial tilt aligning with rotation away from stretched tech.
- Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL): 10% - Cash-like ballast with positive carry to reduce drawdown risk in a holiday-shortened, catalyst-light week for defensive posture.
- Sharp tech/semiconductor rebound would drive SPY/QQQ up and cause defensive tilt to lag the benchmark
- Healthcare and value recent strength could reverse (crowding/mean reversion) before exit close
- Rate spike or hawkish data ahead of ISM Services (July 6) could pressure rate-sensitive financials and low-vol names
- Bank pre-earnings de-risking or negative guidance chatter could weigh on financials before July 14 reports
Validated JSON
{
"confidence": 0.55,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Sharp tech/semiconductor rebound would drive SPY/QQQ up and cause defensive tilt to lag the benchmark",
"Healthcare and value recent strength could reverse (crowding/mean reversion) before exit close",
"Rate spike or hawkish data ahead of ISM Services (July 6) could pressure rate-sensitive financials and low-vol names",
"Bank pre-earnings de-risking or negative guidance chatter could weigh on financials before July 14 reports"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Strong recent leadership (+5.2% 7d, +12.3% 30d, +14% vs SPX) with low beta and defensive tilt; XLV at 52w high with broad participation supports near-term continuation while inflation stays elevated."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Positive momentum (+4% 7d, +8.5% 30d) with big-bank earnings (JPM, WFC) approaching July 14 driving constructive positioning into the window; steep yield curve supportive."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "LOW_VOL",
"rationale": "Defensive factor outperforming (+2.4% 7d, +9% vs SPX 30d) with lowest volatility and small drawdown; ballast given weak payrolls and elevated core PCE."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Value leadership (+5.15% vs SPX 30d) at 52w high, low beta, cyclical/financial tilt aligning with rotation away from stretched tech."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"rationale": "Cash-like ballast with positive carry to reduce drawdown risk in a holiday-shortened, catalyst-light week for defensive posture."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Tilt toward defensive and value/financial leadership showing positive breadth and benchmark-relative strength while avoiding stretched, high-volatility mega-cap tech and semis that led the recent selloff; short-duration bills add ballast.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Overweight healthcare, financials, low-vol and value leadership with a cash-like anchor to seek positive alpha versus SPY in a low-catalyst week.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-02-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 22418,
"latency_seconds": 14.048395512974821,
"output_tokens": 871,
"total_tokens": 23289
}
} Gemini 3.1 Pro
google-gemini-3-1-pro
- Confidence
- 0.65
- Run Type
- official
This portfolio balances broad market exposure with defensive sectors and a cash-like buffer. The allocation to Healthcare and Financials aims to capture potential upside from sector-specific catalysts and defensive positioning. Short-term Treasuries provide stability and risk mitigation.
A balanced approach combining broad US equities, defensive sectors (Healthcare), potential beneficiaries of the rate environment (Financials), and a cash-like buffer (Short-Term Treasuries).
- S&P 500 (SPY): 40% - Broad US equity exposure provides a baseline for the portfolio, capturing general market trends and economic resilience.
- Healthcare Sector (XLV): 20% - Healthcare offers defensive characteristics and has shown recent strength, providing stability in a potentially volatile market.
- Financials Sector (XLF): 20% - Financials may benefit from the current interest rate environment and upcoming earnings reports from major banks.
- Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL): 20% - Short-term Treasuries provide a cash-like buffer to mitigate downside risk and preserve capital.
- Unexpected negative earnings surprises from major banks could weigh on the Financials sector.
- A sudden shift in interest rate expectations could negatively impact both equities and fixed income.
- Broader market volatility could lead to underperformance relative to a more concentrated or aggressive strategy.
Validated JSON
{
"confidence": 0.65,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Unexpected negative earnings surprises from major banks could weigh on the Financials sector.",
"A sudden shift in interest rate expectations could negatively impact both equities and fixed income.",
"Broader market volatility could lead to underperformance relative to a more concentrated or aggressive strategy."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Broad US equity exposure provides a baseline for the portfolio, capturing general market trends and economic resilience."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Healthcare offers defensive characteristics and has shown recent strength, providing stability in a potentially volatile market."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Financials may benefit from the current interest rate environment and upcoming earnings reports from major banks."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"rationale": "Short-term Treasuries provide a cash-like buffer to mitigate downside risk and preserve capital."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "This portfolio balances broad market exposure with defensive sectors and a cash-like buffer. The allocation to Healthcare and Financials aims to capture potential upside from sector-specific catalysts and defensive positioning. Short-term Treasuries provide stability and risk mitigation.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "A balanced approach combining broad US equities, defensive sectors (Healthcare), potential beneficiaries of the rate environment (Financials), and a cash-like buffer (Short-Term Treasuries).",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-02-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16163,
"latency_seconds": 7.012417037039995,
"output_tokens": 478,
"total_tokens": 16641
}
} GPT-5.5
openai-gpt-5-5
- Confidence
- 0.58
- Run Type
- official
The portfolio tilts toward areas with current relative leadership that also have plausible one-week support from defensive rotation, pre-earnings positioning, and lower dependence on mega-cap technology. It avoids the weakest high-beta AI/semiconductor complex during a short window with limited positive catalysts before July 9.
Favor healthcare/biotech, financials, aerospace-defense, and low-volatility equities over cap-weighted S&P 500 exposure for a one-week window marked by weak jobs data, elevated inflation, and recent factor rotation away from mega-cap tech. The portfolio keeps enough risk to seek alpha while diversifying across 5 holdings.
- Biotechnology (XBI): 30% - Biotech has shown strong near-term leadership and is at a 52-week high, with support from broader healthcare strength; allocation is capped because the move is extended and reversal risk is high.
- Healthcare Sector (XLV): 25% - Healthcare has the strongest 30-day benchmark-relative performance among broad sectors, lower beta than the S&P 500, and may benefit if weak payrolls keep investors favoring defensive growth.
- Financials Sector (XLF): 20% - Financials have positive 7-day and 30-day relative strength, low recent drawdown, and may see pre-earnings positioning ahead of large-bank reports just after the scoring window.
- Aerospace and Defense (ITA): 15% - Aerospace and defense has strong recent relative performance and sector-specific demand/geopolitical support, while maintaining roughly market-level beta.
- US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV): 10% - Low-volatility equities provide defensive participation after weak labor data and have strong recent relative performance, though recent price strength alone could reverse.
- Biotech and healthcare have already rallied sharply and could mean-revert or suffer idiosyncratic drug-policy, clinical, or financing headlines.
- If mega-cap technology and semiconductors rebound strongly after recent weakness, the portfolio may lag the S&P 500 benchmark.
- Financials could underperform if weak payroll data raises credit-quality concerns or if the yield curve/rates move unfavorably before bank earnings.
- A stronger-than-expected ISM Services release or renewed risk-on move could reduce demand for low-volatility and defensive sectors.
- Holiday-shortened trading and low liquidity around July 4 could amplify reversals in recent factor momentum.
Validated JSON
{
"confidence": 0.58,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Biotech and healthcare have already rallied sharply and could mean-revert or suffer idiosyncratic drug-policy, clinical, or financing headlines.",
"If mega-cap technology and semiconductors rebound strongly after recent weakness, the portfolio may lag the S&P 500 benchmark.",
"Financials could underperform if weak payroll data raises credit-quality concerns or if the yield curve/rates move unfavorably before bank earnings.",
"A stronger-than-expected ISM Services release or renewed risk-on move could reduce demand for low-volatility and defensive sectors.",
"Holiday-shortened trading and low liquidity around July 4 could amplify reversals in recent factor momentum."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "Biotech has shown strong near-term leadership and is at a 52-week high, with support from broader healthcare strength; allocation is capped because the move is extended and reversal risk is high."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Healthcare has the strongest 30-day benchmark-relative performance among broad sectors, lower beta than the S&P 500, and may benefit if weak payrolls keep investors favoring defensive growth."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Financials have positive 7-day and 30-day relative strength, low recent drawdown, and may see pre-earnings positioning ahead of large-bank reports just after the scoring window."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"rationale": "Aerospace and defense has strong recent relative performance and sector-specific demand/geopolitical support, while maintaining roughly market-level beta."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"option_id": "LOW_VOL",
"rationale": "Low-volatility equities provide defensive participation after weak labor data and have strong recent relative performance, though recent price strength alone could reverse."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio tilts toward areas with current relative leadership that also have plausible one-week support from defensive rotation, pre-earnings positioning, and lower dependence on mega-cap technology. It avoids the weakest high-beta AI/semiconductor complex during a short window with limited positive catalysts before July 9.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Favor healthcare/biotech, financials, aerospace-defense, and low-volatility equities over cap-weighted S&P 500 exposure for a one-week window marked by weak jobs data, elevated inflation, and recent factor rotation away from mega-cap tech. The portfolio keeps enough risk to seek alpha while diversifying across 5 holdings.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-02-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 14524,
"latency_seconds": 18.51870095101185,
"output_tokens": 966,
"reasoning_tokens": 391,
"total_tokens": 15490
}
} Grok 4.3
xai-grok-4-3
- Confidence
- 0.55
- Run Type
- official
Weak nonfarm payrolls and revisions point to slower growth, supporting a defensive tilt toward healthcare, staples, and low-vol equities for the one-week window.
Soft labor data favors defensives; allocate across healthcare, staples, and low-vol to capture relative stability before exit close.
- Healthcare Sector (XLV): 40% - Weak June payrolls and downward revisions signal slowing growth, favoring defensive healthcare exposure over the holiday-shortened week.
- Consumer Staples Sector (XLP): 30% - Defensive staples sector benefits from lower risk appetite following soft labor data and potential rate-cut expectations.
- US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV): 30% - Low-volatility equities provide stability amid economic uncertainty and limited catalysts before July 9 close.
- Stronger-than-expected ISM Services PMI on July 6 could reverse defensive rotation
- Holiday liquidity may amplify any equity rebound on positive sentiment
- Unexpected Fed commentary could shift rate expectations rapidly
Validated JSON
{
"confidence": 0.55,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Stronger-than-expected ISM Services PMI on July 6 could reverse defensive rotation",
"Holiday liquidity may amplify any equity rebound on positive sentiment",
"Unexpected Fed commentary could shift rate expectations rapidly"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Weak June payrolls and downward revisions signal slowing growth, favoring defensive healthcare exposure over the holiday-shortened week."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"rationale": "Defensive staples sector benefits from lower risk appetite following soft labor data and potential rate-cut expectations."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "LOW_VOL",
"rationale": "Low-volatility equities provide stability amid economic uncertainty and limited catalysts before July 9 close."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Weak nonfarm payrolls and revisions point to slower growth, supporting a defensive tilt toward healthcare, staples, and low-vol equities for the one-week window.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Soft labor data favors defensives; allocate across healthcare, staples, and low-vol to capture relative stability before exit close.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-02-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 14658,
"latency_seconds": 9.550354777951725,
"output_tokens": 333,
"reasoning_tokens": 644,
"total_tokens": 15635
}
} Model Portfolios
This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | Healthcare Sector (XLV)30%Financials Sector (XLF)20%US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV)20%Biotechnology (XBI)15%S&P 500 (SPY)15% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.7 anthropic-claude-opus-4-7 | Anthropic | Healthcare Sector (XLV)30%Financials Sector (XLF)25%US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV)20%Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)15%Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL)10% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.8 anthropic-claude-opus-4-8 | Anthropic | Healthcare Sector (XLV)30%Financials Sector (XLF)25%US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV)20%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)15%Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL)10% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | S&P 500 (SPY)40%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20%Financials Sector (XLF)20%Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL)20% | 0.65 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.5 openai-gpt-5-5 | OpenAI | Biotechnology (XBI)30%Healthcare Sector (XLV)25%Financials Sector (XLF)20%Aerospace and Defense (ITA)15%US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV)10% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | Healthcare Sector (XLV)40%Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)30%US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV)30% | 0.55 | Portfolio round |
Pricing Scoring Prices
Entry and exit prices are shown for the completed close-to-close scoring window.
Scoring Prices
Entry and exit prices are shown for the completed close-to-close scoring window.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-07-02 | 248.19 | 2026-07-09 | 239.62 | -3.45% | Adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-07-02 | 94.13 | 2026-07-09 | 93.82 | -0.33% | Adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-07-02 | 26.74 | 2026-07-09 | 27.71 | 3.63% | Adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-07-02 | 28.09 | 2026-07-09 | 28.20 | 0.39% | Adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-07-02 | 127.94 | 2026-07-09 | 124.70 | -2.53% | Adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-07-02 | 160.46 | 2026-07-09 | 164.28 | 2.38% | Adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-07-02 | 34.87 | 2026-07-09 | 35.81 | 2.70% | Adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-07-02 | 34.43 | 2026-07-09 | 34.96 | 1.54% | Adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-07-02 | 61.85 | 2026-07-09 | 63.83 | 3.20% | Adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-07-02 | 15.87 | 2026-07-09 | 16.42 | 3.47% | Adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-07-02 | 57.77 | 2026-07-09 | 58.38 | 1.06% | Adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | CASH | 2026-07-02 | 1.00 | 2026-07-09 | 1.00 | 0.00% | Adjusted close |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-07-02 | 50.91 | 2026-07-09 | 53.19 | 4.48% | Adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-07-02 | 109.60 | 2026-07-09 | 110.51 | 0.83% | Adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-07-02 | 117.12 | 2026-07-09 | 116.85 | -0.23% | Adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-07-02 | 84.99 | 2026-07-09 | 83.20 | -2.11% | Adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-07-02 | 37.29 | 2026-07-09 | 37.75 | 1.23% | Adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-07-02 | 103.98 | 2026-07-09 | 109.01 | 4.84% | Adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-07-02 | 90.67 | 2026-07-09 | 94.26 | 3.96% | Adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-07-02 | 70.81 | 2026-07-09 | 70.73 | -0.11% | Adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-07-02 | 96.20 | 2026-07-09 | 95.96 | -0.25% | Adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-07-02 | 59.04 | 2026-07-09 | 59.49 | 0.76% | Adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-07-02 | 53.22 | 2026-07-09 | 54.82 | 3.01% | Adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-07-02 | 214.91 | 2026-07-09 | 213.50 | -0.66% | Adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-07-02 | 12.86 | 2026-07-09 | 13.19 | 2.57% | Adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-07-02 | 105.47 | 2026-07-09 | 105.42 | -0.05% | Adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-07-02 | 89.35 | 2026-07-09 | 88.41 | -1.05% | Adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-07-02 | 55.62 | 2026-07-09 | 55.54 | -0.14% | Adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-07-02 | 77.51 | 2026-07-09 | 77.51 | -0.00% | Adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-07-02 | 163.74 | 2026-07-09 | 162.17 | -0.96% | Adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-07-02 | 79.71 | 2026-07-09 | 79.75 | 0.05% | Adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-07-02 | 49.56 | 2026-07-09 | 49.02 | -1.09% | Adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-07-02 | 183.91 | 2026-07-09 | 181.11 | -1.52% | Adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-07-02 | 94.12 | 2026-07-09 | 93.71 | -0.44% | Adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-07-02 | 48.24 | 2026-07-09 | 48.02 | -0.46% | Adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-07-02 | 108.64 | 2026-07-09 | 107.71 | -0.86% | Adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-07-02 | 93.14 | 2026-07-09 | 93.52 | 0.41% | Adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-07-02 | 56.95 | 2026-07-09 | 56.48 | -0.83% | Adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-07-02 | 85.51 | 2026-07-09 | 84.49 | -1.19% | Adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-07-02 | 52.01 | 2026-07-09 | 50.26 | -3.36% | Adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-07-02 | 105.13 | 2026-07-09 | 103.24 | -1.80% | Adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-07-02 | 75.50 | 2026-07-09 | 74.24 | -1.67% | Adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-07-02 | 107.50 | 2026-07-09 | 106.94 | -0.52% | Adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-07-02 | 712.60 | 2026-07-09 | 723.28 | 1.50% | Adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-07-02 | 44.68 | 2026-07-09 | 44.23 | -1.01% | Adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-07-02 | 75.02 | 2026-07-09 | 74.65 | -0.49% | Adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-07-02 | 744.78 | 2026-07-09 | 751.71 | 0.93% | Adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-07-02 | 592.29 | 2026-07-09 | 607.73 | 2.61% | Adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-07-02 | 91.44 | 2026-07-09 | 91.46 | 0.02% | Adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-07-02 | 55.02 | 2026-07-09 | 54.14 | -1.60% | Adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-07-02 | 93.57 | 2026-07-09 | 93.88 | 0.33% | Adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-07-02 | 56.32 | 2026-07-09 | 54.95 | -2.43% | Adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-07-02 | 64.00 | 2026-07-09 | 63.28 | -1.12% | Adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-07-02 | 180.14 | 2026-07-09 | 184.75 | 2.56% | Adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-07-02 | 104.86 | 2026-07-09 | 105.05 | 0.18% | Adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-07-02 | 180.59 | 2026-07-09 | 185.35 | 2.64% | Adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-07-02 | 368.76 | 2026-07-09 | 371.45 | 0.73% | Adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-07-02 | 108.33 | 2026-07-09 | 108.12 | -0.19% | Adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-07-02 | 47.16 | 2026-07-09 | 46.41 | -1.59% | Adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-07-02 | 98.61 | 2026-07-09 | 98.18 | -0.44% | Adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-07-02 | 32.39 | 2026-07-09 | 32.26 | -0.40% | Adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-07-02 | 28.34 | 2026-07-09 | 28.36 | 0.07% | Adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-07-02 | 121.16 | 2026-07-09 | 123.30 | 1.77% | Adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-07-02 | 246.81 | 2026-07-09 | 246.38 | -0.17% | Adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-07-02 | 76.73 | 2026-07-09 | 75.50 | -1.60% | Adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-07-02 | 76.09 | 2026-07-09 | 75.70 | -0.51% | Adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-07-02 | 316.53 | 2026-07-09 | 321.20 | 1.48% | Adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-07-02 | 297.58 | 2026-07-09 | 297.24 | -0.11% | Adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-07-02 | 221.33 | 2026-07-09 | 219.50 | -0.83% | Adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-07-02 | 45.76 | 2026-07-09 | 45.13 | -1.38% | Adjusted close |
Audit Published Hashes
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
Published Hashes
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 665508a1f43a...6110c67b |
| manifest.yaml | 30e9e2534e00...2d8cd2c1 |
| market_data/universe_trailing_returns.csv | d0b2637ab6be...223000da |
| market_data/universe_trailing_returns.json | a45afe4818e7...dca7e83e |
| market_data/universe_trailing_returns.md | 7a0319653ef7...b6e12ba9 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | 66320ebc013a...24373e4c |