AI benchmark tape
Benchmark Live AI capital allocation same brief, frozen portfolios, real returns AI Positioning Aggressive 89.5/100 As of July 10, 2026. Growth-led risk seeking Model Agreement Tight 3.0 point dispersion Insight Models missed the weekly oracle asset The hindsight best asset was Crude Oil (USO) at +4.84%. 0 of 6 models held it, with +0.00% average allocation. Crowded Position Semiconductors 18.8% 8 models hold SMH Biggest Shift Cybersecurity down 11.6 pp vs prior weekly round Live MTM Grok 4.5 -0.3% not final Latest Weekly Gemini 3.1 Pro led 0.2% vs S&P 0.9% Full Weekly History Claude Fable 5 leads score 16.3 across 5/25
Data Prices Jul 9 61/61 audited

Fair model comparisons

Benchmark Sets

Equal-run rankings for fixed model rosters using only shared completed rounds.

Living equal-run rosters

All Benchmark Sets

Older sets keep accumulating shared rounds. New official rosters are opened automatically only when no existing set already contains the models in that run. Sets qualify at 6 weekly shared rounds or 3 monthly shared rounds.

Methodology
Weekly Current Benchmark
May 28, 2026 roster

Weekly comparison set that adds Claude Opus 4.8 to the established model roster.

23 shared rounds 5 models Met current threshold
Open set
Monthly Current Benchmark
May 28, 2026 roster

Monthly comparison set that adds Claude Opus 4.8 to the established model roster.

8 shared rounds 5 models Met current threshold
Open set
Weekly Qualified
May 24, 2026 roster

Original weekly comparison set for the first four CapitalBench models.

25 shared rounds 4 models Met 6+ threshold
Open set
Monthly Qualified
May 10, 2026 roster

Original monthly comparison set for the first four CapitalBench models.

11 shared rounds 4 models Met 3+ threshold
Open set
Weekly Forming
Jun 9, 2026 roster

Weekly comparison set that starts when Claude Fable 5 joins the weekly benchmark roster.

5 shared rounds 6 models 5/6 1 more to qualify
Open set
Monthly Forming
Jun 9, 2026 roster

Monthly comparison set that starts when Claude Fable 5 joins the monthly benchmark roster.

1 shared rounds 6 models 1/3 2 more to qualify
Open set
Weekly Waiting
Jul 10, 2026 roster

Weekly comparison set automatically opened when the Jul 10 official roster first required a new equal-run benchmark group across 8 models.

0 shared rounds 8 models 0/6 6 more to qualify
Open set
Weekly Waiting
Jul 8, 2026 roster

Weekly comparison set that starts when Grok 4.5 joins the weekly benchmark roster.

0 shared rounds 7 models 0/6 6 more to qualify
Open set
Monthly Waiting
Jul 10, 2026 roster

Monthly comparison set automatically opened when the Jul 10 official roster first required a new equal-run benchmark group across 8 models.

0 shared rounds 8 models 0/3 3 more to qualify
Open set
Monthly Waiting
Jul 8, 2026 roster

Monthly comparison set that starts when Grok 4.5 joins the monthly benchmark roster.

0 shared rounds 7 models 0/3 3 more to qualify
Open set
Selection rule

How A Set Becomes Current

Fixed roster A set starts when the model roster changes. Missed rounds excluded If one set model is missing, that round is excluded for everyone. Newest qualified wins The newest qualified weekly or monthly set becomes current automatically.
Benchmark charts

The index above is the source of truth for all sets. These charts show the current weekly set and the best available monthly set.

Equal-run benchmark

Current Weekly Benchmark

Every ranked model in this set completed the same 23 weekly rounds.

23 shared resolved rounds5 equal-run models rankedQualified at 6+ shared roundsNewest included round: CB-2026-07-02-1W
Shared resolved rounds

CapitalBench Score

Every ranked model has the same included rounds. Calculation.

Claude Opus 4.8
Grok 4.3
Claude Opus 4.7
GPT-5.5
Gemini 3.1 Pro
S&P 500
Max possible What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio. hindsight best asset

Higher benchmark score is better.

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic · 23/23 scored rounds
-4.5
Grok 4.3 xAI · 23/23 scored rounds
-7.0
Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic · 23/23 scored rounds
-8.4
GPT-5.5 OpenAI · 23/23 scored rounds
-17.3
Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 23/23 scored rounds
-19.7
S&P 500 S&P 500 · 23/23 scored rounds
-0.2
Max possible Hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio
What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio. 100.0
23 shared resolved rounds5 equal-run models rankedQualified at 6+ shared roundsNewest included round: CB-2026-07-02-1W
Return context

Average Return Details

Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.

Anthropic Claude Opus 4.8
-0.38%
xAI Grok 4.3
-0.58%
Anthropic Claude Opus 4.7
-0.70%
OpenAI GPT-5.5
-1.45%
Google Gemini 3.1 Pro
-1.64%
S&P S&P 500
-0.02%
MAX Max possible What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio.
8.33%
Fairness rule: every ranked model completed every included round. A missed round is excluded from this set for everyone.
Equal-run benchmark

Current Monthly Benchmark

Every ranked model in this set completed the same 8 monthly rounds.

8 shared resolved rounds5 equal-run models rankedQualified at 3+ shared roundsNewest included round: CB-2026-06-09-1M
Shared resolved rounds

CapitalBench Score

Every ranked model has the same included rounds. Calculation.

Claude Opus 4.8
Grok 4.3
Claude Opus 4.7
Gemini 3.1 Pro
GPT-5.5
S&P 500
Max possible What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio. hindsight best asset

Higher benchmark score is better.

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic · 8/8 scored rounds
0.5
Grok 4.3 xAI · 8/8 scored rounds
0.2
Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic · 8/8 scored rounds
-0.4
Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 8/8 scored rounds
-9.9
GPT-5.5 OpenAI · 8/8 scored rounds
-15.6
S&P 500 S&P 500 · 8/8 scored rounds
-2.6
Max possible Hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio
What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio. 100.0
8 shared resolved rounds5 equal-run models rankedQualified at 3+ shared roundsNewest included round: CB-2026-06-09-1M
Return context

Average Return Details

Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.

Anthropic Claude Opus 4.8
0.11%
xAI Grok 4.3
0.03%
Anthropic Claude Opus 4.7
-0.08%
Google Gemini 3.1 Pro
-2.07%
OpenAI GPT-5.5
-3.25%
S&P S&P 500
-0.55%
MAX Max possible What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio.
20.81%
Fairness rule: every ranked model completed every included round. A missed round is excluded from this set for everyone.