AI benchmark tape
Benchmark Live AI capital allocation same brief, frozen portfolios, real returns AI Positioning Aggressive 89.5/100 As of July 10, 2026. Growth-led risk seeking Model Agreement Tight 3.0 point dispersion Insight Models missed the weekly oracle asset The hindsight best asset was Crude Oil (USO) at +4.84%. 0 of 6 models held it, with +0.00% average allocation. Crowded Position Semiconductors 19.3% 8 models hold SMH Biggest Shift Cybersecurity down 11.6 pp vs prior weekly round Live MTM GPT-5.5 -0.3% not final Latest Weekly Gemini 3.1 Pro led 0.2% vs S&P 0.9% Full Weekly History Claude Fable 5 leads score 16.3 across 5/25
Data Prices Jul 9 61/61 audited

One-week rounds

All Available Weekly History

Context across every resolved one-week round. Fair model-vs-model rankings use equal-run comparison sets.

Weekly track

Full-History Weekly Scores

Resolved weekly rounds only.

25 resolved rounds compared4 full-history models ranked2 short-history models separatedNewest included round: CB-2026-07-02-1W
All resolved rounds

Full-History Model Scores

Higher benchmark score is better. Calculation.

Grok 4.3
Claude Opus 4.7
GPT-5.5
Gemini 3.1 Pro
S&P 500
Max possible What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio. hindsight best asset

Higher benchmark score is better.

Grok 4.3 xAI · 25/25 scored rounds
-2.1
Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic · 25/25 scored rounds
-3.7
GPT-5.5 OpenAI · 25/25 scored rounds
-10.5
Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 25/25 scored rounds
-13.7
S&P 500 S&P 500 · 25/25 scored rounds
1.1
Max possible Hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio
What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio. 100.0
25 resolved rounds compared4 full-history models ranked2 short-history models separatedNewest included round: CB-2026-07-02-1W
Return context

Average Return Details

Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.

xAI Grok 4.3
-0.19%
Anthropic Claude Opus 4.7
-0.32%
OpenAI GPT-5.5
-0.91%
Google Gemini 3.1 Pro
-1.19%
S&P S&P 500
0.09%
MAX Max possible What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio.
8.64%
Not ranked yet Short-history models

Shown for transparency; not included in the main ranking until they have all 25 completed rounds.

Anthropic
Claude Fable 5 Anthropic · short history · 5/25 scored rounds
Score (5/25)
16.3
Avg return
1.52%
Anthropic
Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic · short history · 23/25 scored rounds
Score (23/25)
-4.5
Avg return
-0.38%
Short history: models missing resolved rounds are shown but cannot lead the full-history score.
Scope

What This Scorecard Includes

This all-history view can include unequal model histories. Use Benchmark Comparison Sets for the fair headline ranking where every model has the exact same included rounds.

Comparison sets