AI benchmark tape
Benchmark Live AI capital allocation same brief, frozen portfolios, real returns AI Positioning Risk-seeking 75.5/100 As of September 4, 2026. Broad risk seeking Model Agreement Tight 4.0 point dispersion Insight Models found the weekly oracle asset The hindsight best asset was Crude Oil (USO) at +9.45%. 1 of 7 models held it, with +5.00% average allocation. The largest allocation came from Gemini 3.1 Pro at +35.00%. Crowded Position Silver 20.1% 8 models hold SLV Biggest Shift Agriculture Commodities up 23.6 pp vs prior weekly round Open Portfolio Leader Gemini 3.1 Pro currently leads at 0.6% interim result, not yet scored Latest Weekly Gemini 3.1 Pro led 3.5% vs S&P 0.1% Full Weekly History GPT-5.6 Sol leads score 8.5 across 31/60
Data Prices Sep 4 132/132 audited

One-week rounds

All Available Weekly History

Context across every resolved one-week round. Fair model-vs-model rankings use equal-run comparison sets.

Weekly track

Full-History Weekly Scores

Resolved weekly rounds only.

60 resolved rounds compared2 full-history models ranked8 short-history models separatedNewest included round: CB-2026-08-27-1W
All resolved rounds

Full-History Model Scores

A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation

Grok 4.3
Gemini 3.1 Pro
S&P 500
Max possible What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio. hindsight best asset

A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation

Grok 4.3 xAI · 60/60 scored rounds
4.7
Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 60/60 scored rounds
-3.0
S&P 500 S&P 500 · 60/60 scored rounds
2.4
Max possible Hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio
What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio. 100.0
60 resolved rounds compared2 full-history models ranked8 short-history models separatedNewest included round: CB-2026-08-27-1W
Return context

Average Return Details

Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.

xAI Grok 4.3
0.48%
Google Gemini 3.1 Pro
-0.30%
S&P S&P 500
0.24%
MAX Max possible What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio.
10.18%
Not ranked yet Short-history models

Shown for transparency; not included in the main ranking until they have all 60 completed rounds.

OpenAI
GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI · short history · 31/60 scored rounds
Score (31/60)
8.5
Avg return
0.96%
Anthropic
Claude Opus 5 Anthropic · short history · 22/60 scored rounds
Score (22/60)
7.5
Avg return
0.96%
xAI
Grok 4.5 xAI · short history · 33/60 scored rounds
Score (33/60)
6.9
Avg return
0.77%
Anthropic
Claude Fable 5 Anthropic · short history · 40/60 scored rounds
Score (40/60)
5.2
Avg return
0.57%
xAI
Grok 4.6 xAI · short history · 11/60 scored rounds
Score (11/60)
2.6
Avg return
0.39%
Anthropic
Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic · short history · 50/60 scored rounds
Score (50/60)
-1.2
Avg return
-0.12%
OpenAI
GPT-5.5 OpenAI · short history · 49/60 scored rounds
Score (49/60)
-2.8
Avg return
-0.25%
Anthropic
Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic · short history · 35/60 scored rounds
Score (35/60)
-5.0
Avg return
-0.45%
Short history: models missing resolved rounds are shown but cannot lead the full-history score.
Scope

What This Scorecard Includes

This all-history view can include unequal model histories. Use Benchmark Comparison Sets for the fair headline ranking where every model has the exact same included rounds.

Compare cohorts Comparison sets