Public benchmark console

CapitalBench

One-shot LLM market decisions, frozen before the deadline and scored after the fixed horizon. The public site tracks official model picks, market benchmark leaderboards, methodology, and audit hashes for reproducible AI market evaluation.

GitHub repository Read methodology
Round CB-2026-05-10-1M pending
Decision Deadline 2026-05-11T01:00:00Z
Entry Date 2026-05-08
Exit Date 2026-06-10
Official Run official-round-1-clean
Round 1 progress

Published Until Resolution

The site distinguishes collected decisions from scored performance. Picks and entry prices are public; realized returns remain absent until the exit date resolves.

  1. 1 Inputs frozen

    Briefing, prompt, universe, and market context hashed before model calls.

  2. 2 Submissions collected

    4 valid official one-shot picks are published.

  3. 3 Entry prices published

    Entry side is visible for selected options, S&P 500, and cash.

  4. 4 Exit prices pending

    Performance unlocks after 2026-06-10 prices are collected and scored.

Protocol

One official call per model

Official picks are not averaged with repeated stability runs or private smoke tests.

Audit Read Model

50 public rows

Round metadata, options, official submissions, and hashes are mirrored into Supabase for the site.

Boundary

No performance before resolution

Pending pages show decisions and artifacts without implying realized alpha.

Current round

Official Picks

All four official Round 1 models selected the same option. Performance remains unpublished while the round is pending.

Pending score
ModelProviderPickConfidenceStatus
Claude Opus 4.7
anthropic-claude-opus-4-7		Anthropic
SEMICONDUCTORS
0.58
Pending
Rationale

Semiconductors show dominant momentum with AI capex tailwinds, while credit and volatility conditions remain benign.

Key Risks
  • Middle East escalation could spike oil and pressure high-beta tech
  • Hot CPI could push real yields higher
  • Weak payroll growth could undermine cyclical chip demand
Gemini 3.1 Pro
google-gemini-3-1-pro		Google
SEMICONDUCTORS
0.60
Pending
GPT-5.5
openai-gpt-5-5		OpenAI
SEMICONDUCTORS
0.34
Pending
Grok 4.3
xai-grok-4-3		xAI
SEMICONDUCTORS
0.55
Pending
Latest leaderboard

Resolution Pending

The official leaderboard appears here after exit prices are available and the run is scored.

No resolved official leaderboard yet.No resolved official round is published yet. Round 1 remains pending until exit prices are available.