AI benchmark tape
Benchmark Live AI capital allocation same brief, frozen portfolios, real returns AI Positioning Risk-seeking 77.6/100 As of October 28, 2026. Broad risk seeking Model Agreement Mixed 5.7 point dispersion Insight Models missed the monthly oracle asset The hindsight best asset was Ethereum ETF (ETHA) at +152.31%. 0 of 7 models held it, with +0.00% average allocation. Crowded Position S&P 500 36.2% 5 models hold SPY Biggest Shift S&P 500 down 56.7 pp vs prior weekly round Open Portfolio Leader Gemini 3.1 Pro currently leads at 0.7% interim result, not yet scored Latest Weekly Gemini 4 Argon led 0.1% vs S&P -0.6% Full Weekly History Gemini 4 Argon leads score 17.6 across 2/80
Data Prices Nov 3 164/164 audited

CapitalBench

The benchmark for AI capital allocation

Each AI model gets the same market brief, builds one portfolio in one response, and uses no browsing or tools. Real market prices determine the result.

See how AI models perform against each other, how they invest and take risk, and how they perform in the real market.

Read the CapitalBench Manifesto
Open Live Positions & Returns Get score alerts Request API access
Model behavior patterns How do AI models allocate differently?
6 models
Gemini 4 Argon Google Emerging allocation profile Pattern still forming3.0 holdings · 35% top61% turnoverNow: EWT 25% Claude Fable 5.1 Anthropic Group-aligned allocator Near peer mix2.6 holdings · 47% top63% turnoverNow: SPY 27% Grok 4.5 xAI Peer-balanced allocator Near peer mix3.5 holdings · 35% top60% turnoverNow: EWT 14% Grok 4.6 xAI Distinctive allocator Near peer mix2.1 holdings · 65% top53% turnoverNow: SPY 56% GPT-6 Astra OpenAI Benchmark-anchored group-aligned allocator S&P 500 core 40% · +16pp vs peers2.6 holdings · 48% top55% turnoverNow: SPY 60% Claude Opus 5 5 Anthropic Benchmark-anchored high-conviction concentrator S&P 500 core 75% · +50pp vs peers1.7 holdings · 75% top28% turnoverNow: SPY 75%
See full behavior
Benchmark results

Which models are performing best?

Monthly and weekly tracks stay separate.

Current Monthly Benchmark

CapitalBench Score

A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation

Grok 4.5
GPT-6 Astra
Grok 4.6
Grok 4.3
Claude Fable 5.1
Claude Opus 5 5
Gemini 3.1 Pro
S&P 500
Max possible What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio. hindsight best asset

A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation

Grok 4.5 xAI · 3/3 scored rounds
2.6
GPT-6 Astra OpenAI · 3/3 scored rounds
1.7
Grok 4.6 xAI · 3/3 scored rounds
1.0
Grok 4.3 xAI · 3/3 scored rounds
0.7
Claude Fable 5.1 Anthropic · 3/3 scored rounds
0.2
Claude Opus 5 5 Anthropic · 3/3 scored rounds
0.1
Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 3/3 scored rounds
-1.8
S&P 500 S&P 500 · 3/3 scored rounds
-0.7
Max possible Hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio
What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio. 100.0
3 shared resolved rounds7 equal-run models rankedQualified at 3+ shared roundsNewest included round: CB-2026-10-04-1M
Return context

Average Return Details

Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.

xAI Grok 4.5
4.01%
OpenAI GPT-6 Astra
2.70%
xAI Grok 4.6
1.55%
xAI Grok 4.3
1.01%
Anthropic Claude Fable 5.1
0.31%
Anthropic Claude Opus 5 5
0.13%
Google Gemini 3.1 Pro
-2.78%
S&P S&P 500
-1.02%
MAX Max possible What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio.
155.61%
Fairness rule: every ranked model completed every included round. A missed round is excluded from this set for everyone.

Monthly and weekly are separate comparison tracks. Scores are never mixed across horizons. Read scoring rules

View all comparison sets Read scoring rules
Model Risk Benchmark

Which AI models take the most risk?

Compare how aggressively each model allocates capital across its official portfolios.

Updated through October 28, 2026Higher means more risk-seeking, not better.
GPT-5.5OpenAI
79.7/100Risk-seeking
98portfolios34.1%largest position3.8%defensive assets
Claude Fable 5.1Anthropic
75.2/100Risk-seeking
36portfolios47.1%largest position4.7%defensive assets
Grok 4.5xAI
74.3/100Risk-seeking
107portfolios35.5%largest position7.1%defensive assets
GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI
73.6/100Risk-seeking
69portfolios36.1%largest position8.1%defensive assets
Grok 4.3xAI
72.7/100Risk-seeking
156portfolios50.4%largest position5.8%defensive assets
Claude Opus 5Anthropic
72.3/100Risk-seeking
68portfolios35.7%largest position7.5%defensive assets
Gemini 3.1 ProGoogle
71.8/100Risk-seeking
156portfolios39.6%largest position13.3%defensive assets
Grok 4.6xAI
71.4/100Risk-seeking
64portfolios65.2%largest position4.5%defensive assets
Claude Opus 4.7Anthropic
71.3/100Risk-seeking
70portfolios31.8%largest position16.6%defensive assets
Claude Fable 5Anthropic
70.8/100Risk-seeking
84portfolios31.3%largest position12.1%defensive assets
GPT-6 AstraOpenAI
70.3/100Risk-seeking
34portfolios47.8%largest position7.2%defensive assets
Claude Opus 5 5Anthropic
69.9/100Risk-seeking
18portfolios75.3%largest position1.9%defensive assets
Claude Opus 4.8Anthropic
69.2/100Risk-seeking
99portfolios35.3%largest position11.7%defensive assets
Portfolio Difference

Which AI models invest most differently from the group?

Compare each model's portfolio with the choices made by the other models in the same rounds.

Updated through October 28, 2026Overall: 50% monthly / 50% weekly
Grok 4.6xAI
57.0/100
62same-round comparisonsEstablished sample
Grok 4.5xAI
53.2/100
62same-round comparisonsEstablished sample
GPT-6 AstraOpenAI
46.8/100
34same-round comparisonsEstablished sample

Different does not mean better or worse. The score compares portfolio outputs; it does not prove copying, influence, or intent.

Explore Portfolio Difference
Model behavior patterns How do AI models allocate differently?
6 models
Gemini 4 Argon Google Emerging allocation profile Pattern still forming3.0 holdings · 35% top61% turnoverNow: EWT 25% Claude Fable 5.1 Anthropic Group-aligned allocator Near peer mix2.6 holdings · 47% top63% turnoverNow: SPY 27% Grok 4.5 xAI Peer-balanced allocator Near peer mix3.5 holdings · 35% top60% turnoverNow: EWT 14% Grok 4.6 xAI Distinctive allocator Near peer mix2.1 holdings · 65% top53% turnoverNow: SPY 56% GPT-6 Astra OpenAI Benchmark-anchored group-aligned allocator S&P 500 core 40% · +16pp vs peers2.6 holdings · 48% top55% turnoverNow: SPY 60% Claude Opus 5 5 Anthropic Benchmark-anchored high-conviction concentrator S&P 500 core 75% · +50pp vs peers1.7 holdings · 75% top28% turnoverNow: SPY 75%
See full behavior
Performance by market

Who leads when markets rise or fall?

Monthly leaders vs. the S&P 500.

Monthly snapshot Updated Nov 2 4 of 5 market types comparable
Market fell S&P < -1.0%
Leader Grok 4.3
Average return -1.22%
Versus S&P 500 -1.90%
+0.68 pts vs S&P 6 results · Some evidence
Market rose S&P > +1.0%
Leader Claude Opus 5
Average return +3.19%
Versus S&P 500 +1.93%
+1.26 pts vs S&P 5 results · Some evidence
Explore all market environments
AI positioning

What are AI models doing right now?

Live allocations before the next official score.

As of October 28, 2026
Current risk appetite As of October 28, 2026 77.6/100 Risk-seeking / Broad risk seeking
Consensus allocation As of October 28, 2026 26.7% S&P 500 (SPY) average live weight
Risk shift As of October 28, 2026 +0.3 Change vs Oct 22 portfolios
Model agreement As of October 28, 2026 Mixed 5.7 point dispersion
Current risk appetite 77.6/100 As of October 28, 2026 / Risk-seeking
As of October 28, 2026 Broad risk seeking Combined view of monthly and weekly model portfolios for this date.
Unscored portfolios 73.9/100 Separate read across every open portfolio before official scoring.
Largest current allocations
S&P 500 (SPY) 26.7% Taiwan Equities (EWT) 14.6% Semiconductors (SMH) 14.2% Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) 13.8% Brazil Equities (EWZ) 8.8% Communication Services Sector (XLC) 8.8%
Regime mix
Broad and cyclical equity 32.1% Growth and technology 28.3% International equity 25.8% Defensive equity 13.8%
Inspect current frozen portfolios View historical risk trend
Trust and proof

What makes each model test comparable?

Same brief. Same choices. One response. No tools. Real market prices.

  1. Step 1 Same report

    Every model reads the same market report.

  2. Step 2 Same choices

    Every model chooses from the same 70 assets.

  3. Step 3 One response, then locked

    No browsing, tools, or follow-up prompts. The model's submitted portfolio is frozen before results are known.

  4. Step 4 Fixed wait window

    The frozen portfolio sits untouched for 7 days or 1 month.

  5. Step 5 Prices score it

    Real ending prices decide which model did best.

Read full methodology See score methodology
Benchmark universe

What can models choose from?

The active roster, asset menu, horizons, and open rounds.

Models 14
Asset choices 70
Round lengths 2
Open rounds 7
Protocol Single-turn Non-agentic calls
Explore models View asset universe Open live dashboard
Latest official results

What happened in the latest scored rounds?

Finished monthly and weekly rounds scored against real market returns.

Monthly result1 of 75
Monthly official result

Monthly result scored Nov 2

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored
Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Grok 4.5
Grok 4.6
GPT-6 Astra
Grok 4.3
Claude Fable 5.1
Claude Opus 5 5
S&P 500
ETHA Ethereum ETF
Gemini 3.1 Pro Google
6.57%
Grok 4.5 xAI
6.57%
Grok 4.6 xAI
5.42%
GPT-6 Astra OpenAI
5.38%
Grok 4.3 xAI
3.82%
Claude Fable 5.1 Anthropic
1.18%
Claude Opus 5 5 Anthropic
1.18%
S&P 500 Benchmark
-2.28%
ETHA Ethereum ETF - Hindsight best asset
152.31%
Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

1
Gemini 3.1 Pro Google
Financials (XLF) 35% Dividend (SCHD) 35% Small Value (IWN) 30%
2
Grok 4.5 xAI
Financials (XLF) 35% Dividend (SCHD) 35% Small Value (IWN) 30%
3
Grok 4.6 xAI
Financials (XLF) 35% Materials (XLB) 35% S&P 500 (SPY) 30%
4
GPT-6 Astra OpenAI
Financials (XLF) 35% Dividend (SCHD) 35% S&P 500 (SPY) 30%
5
Grok 4.3 xAI
Financials (XLF) 35% Materials (XLB) 35% Metals and Mining (XME) 30%
6
Claude Fable 5.1 Anthropic
Financials (XLF) 35% S&P 500 (SPY) 65%
7
Claude Opus 5 5 Anthropic
Financials (XLF) 35% S&P 500 (SPY) 65%
Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

ETHA Ethereum ETF - Hindsight best asset

100% Ethereum ETF (ETHA) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Monthly result scored Nov 2

Audit ID: CB-2026-10-04-1M

Audit packetTrack results
ScoredNov 2WindowOct 2 to Nov 2Models7Asset choices70LeaderGemini 3.1 ProHorizonMonthly
View all benchmark results
Live dashboard

What is still in progress?

Open portfolios, interim returns, and upcoming score dates.

Open rounds 7 6 monthly / 1 weekly
Frozen portfolios 45 20 assets currently held
Latest close Nov 3 Live returns update before final scoring
Next score Nov 4 Official results publish after ending prices
Open live positions and returns Review open tests Current weekly test Current monthly test
Audit packet

How can you verify the benchmark?

Round packets expose the report, prompt, portfolios, prices, hashes, and result status.

Open monthly audit packet Open weekly audit packet View all rounds Repository