Across resolved official results, submissions at or above the median confidence of 0.55 averaged -0.57%, while lower-confidence submissions averaged -0.36%.
Confidence is the model's own 0-1 self-reported confidence at submission time, compared with later realized returns.
High confidenceMath: deterministicData through Jul 10, 2026
GPT-5.6 Sol has the highest average risk-taking score at 90.4/100. GPT-5.6 Sol has the largest average top holding at +42.50%. GPT-5.5 has the lowest measured turnover at +43.81%.
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
High confidenceMath: deterministicData through Jul 10, 2026
The newest monthly portfolios allocate +85.62% to the top 20% of assets by prior 30-day return. The strongest 30-day asset in the input table was Biotechnology (XBI).
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
High confidenceMath: deterministicData through Jul 10, 2026
n/aRank in setn/aCapitalBench Scoren/aTotal return0Shared rounds
This set is waiting for its first shared resolved round.
The chart appears after every model in the 8-model roster has an official result in the same weekly round.
Weekly · Waiting
Jul 8, 2026 roster
Weekly comparison set that starts when Grok 4.5 joins the weekly benchmark roster.
n/aRank in setn/aCapitalBench Scoren/aTotal return0Shared rounds
This set is waiting for its first shared resolved round.
The chart appears after every model in the 7-model roster has an official result in the same weekly round.
Monthly · Waiting
Jul 10, 2026 roster
Monthly comparison set automatically opened when the Jul 10 official roster first required a new equal-run benchmark group across 8 models.
n/aRank in setn/aCapitalBench Scoren/aTotal return0Shared rounds
This set is waiting for its first shared resolved round.
The chart appears after every model in the 8-model roster has an official result in the same monthly round.
Monthly · Waiting
Jul 8, 2026 roster
Monthly comparison set that starts when Grok 4.5 joins the monthly benchmark roster.
n/aRank in setn/aCapitalBench Scoren/aTotal return0Shared rounds
This set is waiting for its first shared resolved round.
The chart appears after every model in the 7-model roster has an official result in the same monthly round.
Performance chart
Portfolio Minus S&P 500 By Completed Round
Bars to the right mean the portfolio return was higher than the S&P 500 return. Bars to the left mean it was lower.
No completed score yet.This chart appears after at least one test has ending prices.
Portfolio pattern
What This Model Has Tended To Hold
Calculated from all saved official portfolios for this model, including open and completed rounds.
Cumulative risk appetite
Aggressive
Frequently leans into high-beta or narrow thematic exposure.
One-week window favors TSMC results, bank earnings, and AI chip demand over defensive or rate-sensitive assets given sticky inflation and no near-term Fed cuts.
Prioritize semiconductor and Taiwan exposure for AI demand and TSMC earnings catalyst, supplemented by broader tech/Nasdaq for liquidity and momentum continuation over the July-August window.
Prioritize high-momentum AI/semiconductor and biotech exposures with scheduled TSMC and bank earnings catalysts plus cybersecurity strength to generate alpha versus SPY over one month. Soft claims/payrolls and low VIX support risk-on tilt without rate-cut dependence.
CB-2026-07-08-1W official-20260708 weekly2026-07-08 to 2026-07-15OIL 30.0%ENERGY 25.0%BIOTECH 20.0%FINANCIALS 15.0%LARGE_VALUE 10.0%Pending
Full portfolio
Crude Oil (USO) 30.0% Energy Sector (XLE) 25.0% Biotechnology (XBI) 20.0% Financials Sector (XLF) 15.0% US Large-Cap Value (IWD) 10.0%
Rationale
One-week edge comes from oil geopolitics, bank earnings, and value/cyclical tilt amid sticky inflation signals rather than broad beta or long-duration assets.
CB-2026-07-08-1M official-20260708 monthly2026-07-08 to 2026-08-07BIOTECH 35.0%HEALTHCARE 20.0%FINANCIALS 20.0%ENERGY 15.0%LARGE_VALUE 10.0%Pending
Full portfolio
Biotechnology (XBI) 35.0% Healthcare Sector (XLV) 20.0% Financials Sector (XLF) 20.0% Energy Sector (XLE) 15.0% US Large-Cap Value (IWD) 10.0%
Rationale
Prioritize momentum and sector strength with near-term catalysts over broad beta or bonds; biotech leads for upside capture, balanced by healthcare/value and energy/financials exposure.
