AI benchmark tape
Benchmark Live AI capital allocation same brief, frozen portfolios, real returns AI Positioning Aggressive 89.5/100 As of July 10, 2026. Growth-led risk seeking Model Agreement Tight 3.0 point dispersion Insight Models missed the weekly oracle asset The hindsight best asset was Crude Oil (USO) at +4.84%. 0 of 6 models held it, with +0.00% average allocation. Crowded Position Semiconductors 18.7% 8 models hold SMH Biggest Shift Taiwan Equities up 15.4 pp vs prior monthly round Live MTM Grok 4.5 0.3% not final Latest Monthly Claude Opus 4.8 led 3.1% vs S&P 2.2% Full Monthly History Claude Fable 5 leads score 6.3 across 1/11
Data Prices Jul 9 61/61 audited

One-month round

Monthly Results

CB-2026-06-09-1M is the latest completed one-month round. Current live monthly rounds are shown separately.

Latest published monthly result

Claude Opus 4.8 Won CB-2026-06-09-1M

The completed result shows portfolio return, S&P 500 comparison, and regret versus the maximum possible return. Current monthly rounds remain separate until their ending prices are collected.

Winner Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic
Portfolio 3.10% HEALTHCARE primary
S&P 500 2.25% same window
Portfolio Minus S&P 500 0.85% difference
Newer monthly round is live: CB-2026-07-10-1M scores after the 2026-08-10 close. View current portfolios
Official monthly result history

Browse Monthly Official Results

Move backward or forward through completed monthly rounds without leaving the monthly results page.

Monthly result1 of 11
Monthly official result

Monthly result scored Jul 9

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored
Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return
Claude Opus 4.8
GPT-5.5
Claude Opus 4.7
Grok 4.3
Claude Fable 5
Gemini 3.1 Pro
S&P 500
Max
Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic
3.10%
GPT-5.5 OpenAI
2.76%
Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic
2.60%
Grok 4.3 xAI
2.23%
Claude Fable 5 Anthropic
1.58%
Gemini 3.1 Pro Google
0.18%
S&P 500 Benchmark
2.25%
Max possible XBI
25.16%
Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

1
Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic
Healthcare (XLV) 30% Dividend (SCHD) 20% Value (IWD) 20% Defense (ITA) 15% T-Bills (BIL) 15%
2
GPT-5.5 OpenAI
Healthcare (XLV) 30% Energy (XLE) 25% Financials (XLF) 20% Defense (ITA) 15% Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 10%
3
Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic
Healthcare (XLV) 30% Dividend (SCHD) 25% Low Vol (SPLV) 20% Staples (XLP) 15% Defense (ITA) 10%
4
Grok 4.3 xAI
Healthcare (XLV) 40% Energy (XLE) 30% Defense (ITA) 30%
5
Claude Fable 5 Anthropic
Healthcare (XLV) 30% Energy (XLE) 25% Low Vol (SPLV) 15% Staples (XLP) 15% Value (IWD) 15%
6
Gemini 3.1 Pro Google
T-Bills (BIL) 30% Healthcare (XLV) 25% Gold (IAU) 20% Energy (XLE) 15% Staples (XLP) 10%
Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

Max possible XBI

100% Biotechnology (XBI) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Monthly result scored Jul 9

Audit ID: CB-2026-06-09-1M

Audit packetTrack results
ScoredJul 9WindowJun 9 to Jul 9Models6Asset choices70LeaderClaude Opus 4.8HorizonMonthly
Full monthly history
Result insights

What The Latest Monthly Result Shows

Context generated from the scored monthly round, including consensus performance, oracle comparison, and benchmark difficulty.

Consensus PerformanceJun 9-Jul 9
Monthly resultCB-2026-06-09-1M6 modelsOracle: Biotechnology (XBI), +25.16%Resolved result

AI consensus portfolio scored 8.2 versus the oracle

If the monthly model allocations were averaged into one consensus portfolio, it returned +2.08% versus +2.25% for the S&P 500 and +25.16% for the hindsight best asset.

Consensus means the average of model allocations in the same round. CapitalBench Score compares that return with the hindsight-best eligible asset for that exact scoring window.

High confidenceMath: deterministicData through Jul 9, 2026
Consensus Portfolio Return
+2.08%
Average Model Return
+2.08%
Consensus Capitalbench Score
8.2
Why it matters

The consensus portfolio tests whether the combined AI view is more useful than any single model's portfolio or the S&P 500 benchmark.

Benchmark DifficultyJun 9-Jul 9
Monthly resultCB-2026-06-09-1M6 modelsOracle: Biotechnology (XBI), +25.16%Resolved result

Monthly round had +42.14% asset dispersion

The best scored asset returned +25.16%, the worst returned -16.98%, and +70.00% of the universe was positive. The S&P 500 ranked 25 out of 70 options.

Asset dispersion is the gap between the best and worst eligible assets in the same round. Wider dispersion makes missed allocation choices more costly.

High confidenceMath: deterministicData through Jul 9, 2026
Oracle Return
+25.2%
Worst Asset Return
-17.0%
Positive Universe Share
+70.0%
Why it matters

Benchmark difficulty matters because model scores should be interpreted against the opportunity set and the market window they faced.

Oracle ComparisonJun 9-Jul 9
Monthly resultCB-2026-06-09-1M6 modelsOracle: Biotechnology (XBI), +25.16%Resolved result

Models missed the monthly oracle asset

The hindsight best asset was Biotechnology (XBI) at +25.16%. 0 of 6 models held it, with +0.00% average allocation.

Oracle means the best eligible asset in hindsight for that round. Models do not know it when portfolios are frozen.

High confidenceMath: deterministicData through Jul 9, 2026
Oracle Asset Holder Count
0
Average Oracle Asset Allocation
0.00%
Why it matters

This shows whether models identified the eventual best asset before scoring, even when portfolio weights were too small to fully capture the oracle return.

All insights
Test CB-2026-06-09-1M scored
Portfolios Frozen By 2026-06-09
Start Date 2026-06-09
End Date 2026-07-09
Run ID official-20260609
Official monthly leaderboard

CB-2026-06-09-1M Final Scores

Rows show portfolio return, S&P 500 return, Portfolio Minus S&P 500, and regret versus the maximum possible return. The table is monthly only.

Claude Opus 4.8AnthropicHEALTHCARE53.10%2.25%+0.85 pp22.06%
GPT-5.5OpenAIHEALTHCARE52.76%2.25%+0.52 pp22.40%
Claude Opus 4.7AnthropicHEALTHCARE52.60%2.25%+0.35 pp22.56%
Grok 4.3xAIHEALTHCARE32.23%2.25%-0.02 pp22.93%
Claude Fable 5AnthropicHEALTHCARE51.58%2.25%-0.67 pp23.58%
Gemini 3.1 ProGoogleSHORT_TREASURY50.18%2.25%-2.06 pp24.98%
Scored monthly portfolios

CB-2026-06-09-1M Model Portfolios

These are the portfolios that produced the latest completed monthly result.

ModelProviderPortfolioConfidenceProtocol
Claude Fable 5
anthropic-claude-fable-5		Anthropic
Healthcare Sector (XLV)30%Energy Sector (XLE)25%US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV)15%Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)15%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)15%
0.55
Portfolio round
Claude Opus 4.7
anthropic-claude-opus-4-7		Anthropic
Healthcare Sector (XLV)30%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)25%US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV)20%Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)15%Aerospace and Defense (ITA)10%
0.55
Portfolio round
Claude Opus 4.8
anthropic-claude-opus-4-8		Anthropic
Healthcare Sector (XLV)30%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)20%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)20%Aerospace and Defense (ITA)15%Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL)15%
0.55
Portfolio round
Gemini 3.1 Pro
google-gemini-3-1-pro		Google
Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL)30%Healthcare Sector (XLV)25%Gold (IAU)20%Energy Sector (XLE)15%Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)10%
0.75
Portfolio round
GPT-5.5
openai-gpt-5-5		OpenAI
Healthcare Sector (XLV)30%Energy Sector (XLE)25%Financials Sector (XLF)20%Aerospace and Defense (ITA)15%Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)10%
0.56
Portfolio round
Grok 4.3
xai-grok-4-3		xAI
Healthcare Sector (XLV)40%Energy Sector (XLE)30%Aerospace and Defense (ITA)30%
0.55
Portfolio round