AI benchmark tape
Benchmark Live AI capital allocation same brief, frozen portfolios, real returns AI Positioning Aggressive 89.5/100 As of July 10, 2026. Growth-led risk seeking Model Agreement Tight 3.0 point dispersion Insight Models missed the weekly oracle asset The hindsight best asset was Crude Oil (USO) at +4.84%. 0 of 6 models held it, with +0.00% average allocation. Crowded Position Semiconductors 18.8% 8 models hold SMH Biggest Shift Cybersecurity down 11.6 pp vs prior weekly round Live MTM Grok 4.5 -0.3% not final Latest Weekly Gemini 3.1 Pro led 0.2% vs S&P 0.9% Full Weekly History Claude Fable 5 leads score 16.3 across 5/25
Data Prices Jul 9 61/61 audited
Anthropic
Anthropic

Claude Fable 5

anthropic-claude-fable-5

Live portfolios WeeklyMonthly First run 2026-06-09
Live portfolios 13 13 open rounds
Completed rounds 6 scored rounds
Beat S&P 500 50.0% all completed tracks
Portfolio Minus S&P 500 +0.39 pp completed average
Model insights

What The Benchmark Flags For Claude Fable 5

Behavior and performance notes connected to this model, with fallback context from model-behavior and attribution signals.

Confidence CalibrationAs of Jul 10
All resolved official results36 resolved rounds181 scored resultsMedian confidence 0.55Resolved history

High-confidence model calls have underperformed lower-confidence calls

Across resolved official results, submissions at or above the median confidence of 0.55 averaged -0.57%, while lower-confidence submissions averaged -0.36%.

Confidence is the model's own 0-1 self-reported confidence at submission time, compared with later realized returns.

High confidenceMath: deterministicData through Jul 10, 2026
High Confidence Average Return
-0.57%
Low Confidence Average Return
-0.36%
High Confidence Average Capitalbench Score
-15.7
Why it matters

Confidence calibration helps readers judge whether model self-reported confidence carries useful information about realized benchmark performance.

Model BehaviorAs of Jul 10
Model behavior profiles8 models

Model allocation styles are separating into clear behavior profiles

GPT-5.6 Sol has the highest average risk-taking score at 90.4/100. GPT-5.6 Sol has the largest average top holding at +42.50%. GPT-5.5 has the lowest measured turnover at +43.81%.

Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.

High confidenceMath: deterministicData through Jul 10, 2026
Highest Average Risk Taking Score
90.4/100
Largest Average Top Holding
+42.5%
Lowest Average Turnover
+43.8%
Model BehaviorJul 10-Aug 10
Monthly live roundCB-2026-07-10-1M8 modelsLive portfolios

Monthly models are leaning into recent winners

The newest monthly portfolios allocate +85.62% to the top 20% of assets by prior 30-day return. The strongest 30-day asset in the input table was Biotechnology (XBI).

Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.

High confidenceMath: deterministicData through Jul 10, 2026
Allocation To Top 30d Momentum Quintile
+85.6%
Allocation To Bottom 30d Momentum Quintile
0.00%
Why it matters

This measures whether models are chasing recent momentum or allocating away from it before outcomes are known.

All insights
Behavior vs peers

Balanced allocator

Shows a mixed profile without one dominant allocation behavior standing out yet.

Risk-taking score 73.4 / 100 0 defensive to 100 aggressive
Average top holding 27.4% concentration of the largest position
Peer overlap 60.0% closest to Grok 4.5
Average turnover 56.2% round-to-round portfolio change
Peer-relative read

Closest behavior match: Grok 4.5

Average peer overlap is 60.0% across matching official rounds. It was a clear allocation outlier in 1 round.

High-risk exposure
65.5%
Defensive exposure
7.4%
Tech exposure
28.4%
Live risk change
+11.0 pts
Most used assets
Healthcare Sector (XLV) us sector 14.2%
Financials Sector (XLF) us sector 13.7%
Semiconductors (SMH) ai and technology 12.9%
Energy Sector (XLE) us sector 10.5%
Biotechnology (XBI) healthcare and biotech 10.0%
US Large-Cap Value (IWD) us style factor 7.9%
Current live holdings

Open Portfolios Waiting For Scores

Completed rounds are excluded here, so this view shows only the model's still-open weekly and monthly portfolios.

All Live13 open portfolios
17 assets
Completed rounds are excluded from this live view.Next scoring target: 2026-07-13
Live mark-to-market

Current Return Before Final Scores

Latest available close for live rounds only. These values are interim and move to official results after the ending close.

Weekly live
Portfolio
-0.35%
S&P 500
+0.48%
Portfolio Minus S&P 500
-0.83 pp
3 open tests
Monthly live
Portfolio
-0.30%
S&P 500
+0.84%
Portfolio Minus S&P 500
-1.14 pp
6 open tests
CB-2026-07-08-1M monthly / close 2026-07-09 Portfolio +0.12% S&P 500 +0.85% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -0.72 pp CB-2026-07-07-1M monthly / close 2026-07-09 Portfolio -0.51% S&P 500 +0.53% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -1.05 pp CB-2026-07-06-1M monthly / close 2026-07-09 Portfolio -0.93% S&P 500 +0.06% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -0.99 pp CB-2026-07-02-1M monthly / close 2026-07-09 Portfolio +0.05% S&P 500 +0.93% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -0.88 pp CB-2026-07-01-1M monthly / close 2026-07-09 Portfolio +1.24% S&P 500 +0.80% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 +0.44 pp CB-2026-07-08-1W weekly / close 2026-07-09 Portfolio +0.12% S&P 500 +0.85% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -0.72 pp CB-2026-07-07-1W weekly / close 2026-07-09 Portfolio -0.51% S&P 500 +0.53% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -1.04 pp CB-2026-07-06-1W weekly / close 2026-07-09 Portfolio -0.66% S&P 500 +0.06% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -0.72 pp CB-2026-06-12-1M monthly / close 2026-07-09 Portfolio -1.77% S&P 500 +1.89% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -3.66 pp
Scored record

Weekly And Monthly Results Stay Separate

Weekly record

1 wins / 5 completed

Avg return +1.52%
S&P 500 +0.91%
Avg Portfolio Minus S&P 500 +0.60 pp
Hit rate 60.0%
Avg rank 2.8
Best round CB-2026-06-13-1W
Monthly record

0 wins / 1 completed

Avg return +1.58%
S&P 500 +2.25%
Avg Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -0.67 pp
Hit rate 0.00%
Avg rank 5.0
Best round CB-2026-06-09-1M
Equal-run benchmark sets

Benchmark Sets Including This Model

These are the equal-run rankings this model belongs to. Each set compares a fixed roster only on rounds every model in that roster completed.

Weekly · Forming

Jun 9, 2026 roster

Weekly comparison set that starts when Claude Fable 5 joins the weekly benchmark roster.

Open full set
#2 Rank in set 16.3 CapitalBench Score 7.6% Total return 5 Shared rounds

Weekly Benchmark Forming

CapitalBench Score

GPT-5.5
Claude Fable 5 This model
Grok 4.3
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.7
S&P 500
Max possible What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio. hindsight best asset

Higher benchmark score is better.

GPT-5.5 OpenAI · 5/5 scored rounds
17.8
Claude Fable 5 Anthropic · 5/5 scored rounds
16.3
Grok 4.3 xAI · 5/5 scored rounds
8.5
Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 5/5 scored rounds
7.9
Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic · 5/5 scored rounds
7.2
Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic · 5/5 scored rounds
5.7
S&P 500 S&P 500 · 5/5 scored rounds
9.8
Max possible Hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio
What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio. 100.0
5 shared resolved rounds6 equal-run models ranked1 more shared rounds to qualifyNewest included round: CB-2026-07-02-1W
Return context

Average Return Details

Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.

OpenAI GPT-5.5
1.66%
Anthropic Claude Fable 5
1.52%
xAI Grok 4.3
0.79%
Google Gemini 3.1 Pro
0.73%
Anthropic Claude Opus 4.8
0.67%
Anthropic Claude Opus 4.7
0.53%
S&P S&P 500
0.91%
MAX Max possible What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio.
9.31%
Excluded for fairness: CB-2026-06-15-1W missing anthropic-claude-fable-5; CB-2026-06-16-1W missing anthropic-claude-fable-5; CB-2026-06-17-1W missing anthropic-claude-fable-5; CB-2026-06-18-1W missing anthropic-claude-fable-5; CB-2026-06-22-1W missing anthropic-claude-fable-5; CB-2026-06-23-1W missing anthropic-claude-fable-5; CB-2026-06-24-1W missing anthropic-claude-fable-5; CB-2026-06-25-1W missing anthropic-claude-fable-5; CB-2026-06-26-1W missing anthropic-claude-fable-5; CB-2026-06-29-1W missing anthropic-claude-fable-5; CB-2026-06-30-1W missing anthropic-claude-fable-5 Fairness rule: every ranked model completed every included round. A missed round is excluded from this set for everyone. Forming: this set becomes the Current Weekly Benchmark at 6 shared resolved rounds.
Performance chart

Portfolio Minus S&P 500 By Completed Round

Bars to the right mean the portfolio return was higher than the S&P 500 return. Bars to the left mean it was lower.

CB-2026-06-09-1M monthly / rank 5 of 6 -0.67 pp CB-2026-06-09-1W weekly / rank 6 of 6 -2.05 pp CB-2026-06-12-1W weekly / rank 1 of 6 +1.38 pp CB-2026-06-13-1W weekly / rank 3 of 6 +3.36 pp CB-2026-07-01-1W weekly / rank 2 of 6 +1.39 pp CB-2026-07-02-1W weekly / rank 2 of 6 -1.07 pp
Portfolio pattern

What This Model Has Tended To Hold

Calculated from all saved official portfolios for this model, including open and completed rounds.

Cumulative risk appetite

Growth

Usually favors equities, sectors, or thematic growth exposure.

3.93 / 5 allocation-weighted score
Claude Fable 5 3.93
65.5% high-risk exposure 28.4% technology exposure 7.4% defensive ballast
Risk appetite 3.93 / 5
Saved portfolios 19
Avg holdings 5.0
Avg top holding 27.4%
Most common top holding Healthcare Sector (XLV)
Most frequently held assets
Financials Sector (XLF) US Sector 68.4% held 13.7% avg
Healthcare Sector (XLV) US Sector 57.9% held 14.2% avg
Biotechnology (XBI) Healthcare And Biotech 57.9% held 10.0% avg
Energy Sector (XLE) US Sector 52.6% held 10.5% avg
Semiconductors (SMH) AI and Technology 47.4% held 12.9% avg
US Large-Cap Value (IWD) US Style Factor 42.1% held 7.9% avg
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) US Growth and Technology 21.1% held 4.5% avg
Average allocation by category
US Sector 42.9%
AI and Technology 12.9%
US Style Factor 11.6%
Healthcare And Biotech 10.0%
US Factor Equity 6.1%
Country Equity 5.0%
US Growth and Technology 4.5%
Round history

Saved Portfolios And Results

Round Track Window Portfolio Result
CB-2026-07-10-1W official-20260710 weekly 2026-07-10 to 2026-07-17 SEMICONDUCTORS 35.0%TECHNOLOGY 20.0%TAIWAN 15.0%FINANCIALS 15.0%SP500 15.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Semiconductors (SMH) 35.0% Technology Sector (XLK) 20.0% Taiwan Equities (EWT) 15.0% Financials Sector (XLF) 15.0% S&P 500 (SPY) 15.0%
Rationale

Overweight semis/tech and Taiwan into TSMC earnings, add financials for July 14 bank results, with SPY ballast.

CB-2026-07-10-1M official-20260710 monthly 2026-07-10 to 2026-08-10 SEMICONDUCTORS 35.0%NASDAQ100 20.0%TAIWAN 15.0%FINANCIALS 15.0%INDUSTRIALS 15.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Semiconductors (SMH) 35.0% Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 20.0% Taiwan Equities (EWT) 15.0% Financials Sector (XLF) 15.0% Industrials Sector (XLI) 15.0%
Rationale

Concentrated AI/semis tilt supported by briefing facts (TSMC revenue, SK Hynix demand, Nvidia strength), diversified with bank earnings catalysts and industrial momentum.

CB-2026-07-09-1W official-20260709 weekly 2026-07-09 to 2026-07-16 SEMICONDUCTORS 30.0%NASDAQ100 20.0%BIOTECH 20.0%ENERGY 15.0%GOLD 15.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Semiconductors (SMH) 30.0% Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 20.0% Biotechnology (XBI) 20.0% Energy Sector (XLE) 15.0% Gold (IAU) 15.0%
Rationale

AI/semiconductor catalysts (TSMC sales and earnings) anchor the portfolio, with biotech momentum and energy/gold hedging Iran escalation and inflation-data risk.

CB-2026-07-09-1M official-20260709 monthly 2026-07-09 to 2026-08-07 SEMICONDUCTORS 25.0%ENERGY 25.0%NASDAQ100 20.0%BIOTECH 15.0%FINANCIALS 15.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Semiconductors (SMH) 25.0% Energy Sector (XLE) 25.0% Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 20.0% Biotechnology (XBI) 15.0% Financials Sector (XLF) 15.0%
Rationale

Overweight AI-driven tech into TSMC and mega-cap earnings, hedge Iran conflict escalation with energy, and add biotech and financials for momentum and bank-earnings catalysts.

CB-2026-07-08-1W official-20260708 weekly 2026-07-08 to 2026-07-15 HEALTHCARE 25.0%ENERGY 20.0%FINANCIALS 20.0%LARGE_VALUE 20.0%BIOTECH 15.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Healthcare Sector (XLV) 25.0% Energy Sector (XLE) 20.0% Financials Sector (XLF) 20.0% US Large-Cap Value (IWD) 20.0% Biotechnology (XBI) 15.0%
Rationale

Defensive-value and energy tilt with bank earnings and geopolitical oil catalysts, avoiding high-beta tech ahead of a risky CPI print.

CB-2026-07-08-1M official-20260708 monthly 2026-07-08 to 2026-08-07 HEALTHCARE 25.0%LARGE_VALUE 20.0%FINANCIALS 20.0%ENERGY 20.0%BIOTECH 15.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Healthcare Sector (XLV) 25.0% US Large-Cap Value (IWD) 20.0% Financials Sector (XLF) 20.0% Energy Sector (XLE) 20.0% Biotechnology (XBI) 15.0%
Rationale

Value/defensive/energy tilt versus SPY given hawkish Fed minutes, rising oil, and yields near 4.6%, with financials earnings catalysts and biotech momentum.

CB-2026-07-07-1W official-20260707 weekly 2026-07-07 to 2026-07-14 FINANCIALS 25.0%LARGE_VALUE 20.0%HEALTHCARE 20.0%ENERGY 20.0%BIOTECH 15.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Financials Sector (XLF) 25.0% US Large-Cap Value (IWD) 20.0% Healthcare Sector (XLV) 20.0% Energy Sector (XLE) 20.0% Biotechnology (XBI) 15.0%
Rationale

Overweight financials into big-bank earnings, energy on Iran supply catalysts, and value/healthcare defensives against sticky-inflation CPI risk; small biotech kicker with acknowledged reversal risk.

CB-2026-07-07-1M official-20260707 monthly 2026-07-07 to 2026-08-07 FINANCIALS 25.0%HEALTHCARE 20.0%LARGE_VALUE 20.0%BIOTECH 20.0%ENERGY 15.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Financials Sector (XLF) 25.0% Healthcare Sector (XLV) 20.0% US Large-Cap Value (IWD) 20.0% Biotechnology (XBI) 20.0% Energy Sector (XLE) 15.0%
Rationale

Rotation portfolio favoring value, financials into earnings, healthcare/biotech strength, and energy on Iranian sanctions risk, avoiding expensive tech ahead of a hawkish-risk July FOMC.

CB-2026-07-06-1W official-20260706 weekly 2026-07-06 to 2026-07-13 FINANCIALS 25.0%BIOTECH 20.0%AEROSPACE_DEFENSE 20.0%SEMICONDUCTORS 20.0%LARGE_VALUE 15.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Financials Sector (XLF) 25.0% Biotechnology (XBI) 20.0% Aerospace and Defense (ITA) 20.0% Semiconductors (SMH) 20.0% US Large-Cap Value (IWD) 15.0%
Rationale

Overweight financials, biotech, aerospace-defense, and value on rate-cut-friendly labor data and strong breadth, with semis for AI catalysts including TSMC monthly sales Friday.

CB-2026-07-06-1M official-20260706 monthly 2026-07-06 to 2026-08-06 SEMICONDUCTORS 25.0%TAIWAN 25.0%FINANCIALS 20.0%INDUSTRIALS 15.0%HEALTHCARE 15.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Semiconductors (SMH) 25.0% Taiwan Equities (EWT) 25.0% Financials Sector (XLF) 20.0% Industrials Sector (XLI) 15.0% Healthcare Sector (XLV) 15.0%
Rationale

Concentrated in AI-chip beneficiaries with confirmed near-window catalysts (TSMC earnings/sales, Broadcom-Apple deal, component shortages), balanced by financials into earnings and healthcare/industrials to manage beta.

CB-2026-07-02-1W official-20260702 weekly 2026-07-02 to 2026-07-09 HEALTHCARE 30.0%FINANCIALS 20.0%LOW_VOL 20.0%BIOTECH 15.0%SP500 15.0% -1.07 pp
Full portfolio
Healthcare Sector (XLV) 30.0% Financials Sector (XLF) 20.0% US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) 20.0% Biotechnology (XBI) 15.0% S&P 500 (SPY) 15.0%
Rationale

Tilt toward healthcare, low-vol, and financials on soft labor data and bank earnings positioning, with biotech for rate-cut beta and SPY as ballast; underweight extended semis/tech showing drawdown risk.

CB-2026-07-02-1M official-20260702 monthly 2026-07-02 to 2026-07-31 HEALTHCARE 25.0%BIOTECH 20.0%FINANCIALS 20.0%LARGE_VALUE 20.0%SMALL_VALUE 15.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Healthcare Sector (XLV) 25.0% Biotechnology (XBI) 20.0% Financials Sector (XLF) 20.0% US Large-Cap Value (IWD) 20.0% US Small-Cap Value (IWN) 15.0%
Rationale

Rotation portfolio tilted to value, healthcare, biotech, financials, and small-cap value on weakening labor data and near-term bank earnings catalysts, avoiding recently drawn-down tech/momentum.

CB-2026-07-01-1W official-20260701-with-fable weekly 2026-07-01 to 2026-07-08 HEALTHCARE 25.0%BIOTECH 20.0%FINANCIALS 20.0%LARGE_VALUE 20.0%EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 15.0% +1.39 pp
Full portfolio
Healthcare Sector (XLV) 25.0% Biotechnology (XBI) 20.0% Financials Sector (XLF) 20.0% US Large-Cap Value (IWD) 20.0% Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 15.0%
Rationale

Overweight healthcare/biotech, financials, and value/equal-weight to ride the ongoing breadth rotation while limiting exposure to faltering AI/tech leadership over the short window.

CB-2026-07-01-1M official-20260701-with-fable monthly 2026-07-01 to 2026-07-31 HEALTHCARE 25.0%SMALL_VALUE 20.0%FINANCIALS 20.0%EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 20.0%BIOTECH 15.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Healthcare Sector (XLV) 25.0% US Small-Cap Value (IWN) 20.0% Financials Sector (XLF) 20.0% Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 20.0% Biotechnology (XBI) 15.0%
Rationale

Overweight broadening-market beneficiaries (value, small caps, equal-weight, financials, healthcare/biotech) given firm macro data, lagging mega-cap tech, and mid-July bank earnings catalysts.

CB-2026-06-13-1W official-20260613 weekly 2026-06-12 to 2026-06-18 SEMICONDUCTORS 25.0%MOMENTUM 20.0%SMALL_VALUE 20.0%GOLD 20.0%SOUTH_KOREA 15.0% +3.36 pp
Full portfolio
Semiconductors (SMH) 25.0% US Momentum Equities (MTUM) 20.0% US Small-Cap Value (IWN) 20.0% Gold (IAU) 20.0% South Korea Equities (EWY) 15.0%
Rationale

Momentum continuation in semis, Korea, and momentum factor plus small-value breadth, hedged with gold given safe-haven flows and FOMC event risk.

CB-2026-06-12-1W official-20260612-clean weekly 2026-06-11 to 2026-06-18 NASDAQ100 25.0%SEMICONDUCTORS 20.0%MOMENTUM 20.0%ENERGY 20.0%SMALL_VALUE 15.0% +1.38 pp
Full portfolio
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 25.0% Semiconductors (SMH) 20.0% US Momentum Equities (MTUM) 20.0% Energy Sector (XLE) 20.0% US Small-Cap Value (IWN) 15.0%
Rationale

Pro-risk tilt toward growth, semis, momentum and small value into an expected benign FOMC hold, with energy as an inflation hedge.

CB-2026-06-12-1M official-20260612 monthly 2026-06-11 to 2026-07-13 SEMICONDUCTORS 30.0%ENERGY 25.0%MOMENTUM 20.0%SOUTH_KOREA 15.0%TAIWAN 10.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Semiconductors (SMH) 30.0% Energy Sector (XLE) 25.0% US Momentum Equities (MTUM) 20.0% South Korea Equities (EWY) 15.0% Taiwan Equities (EWT) 10.0%
Rationale

Momentum-led barbell: AI/semiconductor and Korea/Taiwan momentum plus energy as an inflation/oil hedge to beat SPY over one month.

CB-2026-06-09-1W official-20260609 weekly 2026-06-09 to 2026-06-16 HEALTHCARE 30.0%LOW_VOL 20.0%CONSUMER_STAPLES 20.0%ENERGY 15.0%SHORT_TREASURY 15.0% -2.05 pp
Full portfolio
Healthcare Sector (XLV) 30.0% US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) 20.0% Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) 20.0% Energy Sector (XLE) 15.0% Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) 15.0%
Rationale

Defensive tilt (healthcare, low-vol, staples) plus energy inflation hedge and T-bills positions for alpha versus SPY through a hot-inflation event week.

CB-2026-06-09-1M official-20260609 monthly 2026-06-09 to 2026-07-09 HEALTHCARE 30.0%ENERGY 25.0%LOW_VOL 15.0%CONSUMER_STAPLES 15.0%LARGE_VALUE 15.0% -0.67 pp
Full portfolio
Healthcare Sector (XLV) 30.0% Energy Sector (XLE) 25.0% US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) 15.0% Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) 15.0% US Large-Cap Value (IWD) 15.0%
Rationale

Stagflationary data and tech weakness favor defensive and inflation-beneficiary sectors over the growth-heavy benchmark into CPI and the June FOMC.

Audit and data Public Audit Packets For This Model