AI benchmark tape
Benchmark Live AI capital allocation same brief, frozen portfolios, real returns AI Positioning Aggressive 89.5/100 As of July 10, 2026. Growth-led risk seeking Model Agreement Tight 3.0 point dispersion Insight Models missed the weekly oracle asset The hindsight best asset was Crude Oil (USO) at +4.84%. 0 of 6 models held it, with +0.00% average allocation. Crowded Position Semiconductors 18.8% 8 models hold SMH Biggest Shift Cybersecurity down 11.6 pp vs prior weekly round Live MTM Grok 4.5 -0.3% not final Latest Weekly Gemini 3.1 Pro led 0.2% vs S&P 0.9% Full Weekly History Claude Fable 5 leads score 16.3 across 5/25
Data Prices Jul 9 61/61 audited

Monthly comparison set

Monthly Set: Jun 9, 2026

Monthly comparison set that starts when Claude Fable 5 joins the monthly benchmark roster.

Benchmark Forming

Fairness Scope

Every ranked model in this set is scored only on rounds that all 6 listed models completed. If one model misses a resolved round, that round is excluded from this set for everyone.

All comparison sets
Shared rounds1 Models6 Threshold3 StatusBenchmark Forming
Equal-run benchmark

Monthly Benchmark Forming

Every ranked model in this set completed the same 1 monthly rounds.

1 shared resolved rounds6 equal-run models ranked2 more shared rounds to qualifyNewest included round: CB-2026-06-09-1M
Shared resolved rounds

CapitalBench Score

Every ranked model has the same included rounds. Calculation.

Claude Opus 4.8
GPT-5.5
Claude Opus 4.7
Grok 4.3
Claude Fable 5
Gemini 3.1 Pro
S&P 500
Max possible What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio. hindsight best asset

Higher benchmark score is better.

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic · 1/1 scored round
12.3
GPT-5.5 OpenAI · 1/1 scored round
11.0
Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic · 1/1 scored round
10.3
Grok 4.3 xAI · 1/1 scored round
8.8
Claude Fable 5 Anthropic · 1/1 scored round
6.3
Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 1/1 scored round
0.7
S&P 500 S&P 500 · 1/1 scored round
8.9
Max possible Hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio
What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio. 100.0
1 shared resolved rounds6 equal-run models ranked2 more shared rounds to qualifyNewest included round: CB-2026-06-09-1M
Return context

Average Return Details

Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.

Anthropic Claude Opus 4.8
3.10%
OpenAI GPT-5.5
2.76%
Anthropic Claude Opus 4.7
2.60%
xAI Grok 4.3
2.23%
Anthropic Claude Fable 5
1.58%
Google Gemini 3.1 Pro
0.18%
S&P S&P 500
2.25%
MAX Max possible What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio.
25.16%
Fairness rule: every ranked model completed every included round. A missed round is excluded from this set for everyone. Forming: this set becomes the Current Monthly Benchmark at 3 shared resolved rounds.
Roster

Models In This Set

This roster stays fixed so the set can keep growing as a clean equal-run comparison.

Anthropic Claude Fable 5

anthropic-claude-fable-5

1 shared rounds in this set Anthropic Claude Opus 4.7

anthropic-claude-opus-4-7

1 shared rounds in this set Anthropic Claude Opus 4.8

anthropic-claude-opus-4-8

1 shared rounds in this set Google Gemini 3.1 Pro

google-gemini-3-1-pro

1 shared rounds in this set OpenAI GPT-5.5

openai-gpt-5-5

1 shared rounds in this set xAI Grok 4.3

xai-grok-4-3

1 shared rounds in this set
Round audit

Included And Excluded Rounds

Included rounds count toward the score. Excluded rounds are resolved rounds after the set started where at least one set model was missing.

2 more to qualify
Included rounds CB-2026-06-09-1M
Excluded for fairness None
Calculation

How The Score Is Calculated

CapitalBench Score equals total model return across included shared rounds divided by total max-possible return across those same rounds, multiplied by 100. Max possible is the best eligible asset in each included round in hindsight.

Scoring details