google-gemini-3-1-pro
Behavior and performance notes connected to this model, with fallback context from model-behavior and attribution signals.
In the latest weekly result, S&P 500 contributed +0.37% to Gemini 3.1 Pro's portfolio. The largest drag came from Healthcare Sector at -0.19%.
Attribution multiplies each frozen holding's weight by its asset return to show what helped or hurt the model portfolio.
The model averaged -3.87% in down environments and +0.93% in up environments, a 4.8 percentage-point gap.
Market environments group resolved rounds by the S&P 500 return over the same weekly or monthly window. Models are compared only on shared rounds; high confidence requires at least six observations and stable leadership.
Across resolved official results, submissions at or above the median confidence of 0.55 averaged -0.57%, while lower-confidence submissions averaged -0.36%.
Confidence is the model's own 0-1 self-reported confidence at submission time, compared with later realized returns.
Usually expresses views through fewer holdings and a larger top position than peers.
Based on 61 official saved portfolios, including 30 weekly and 31 monthly portfolios.
Compare all model patterns How this is calculatedAverage peer overlap is 50.2% across matching official rounds. It was a clear allocation outlier in 24 rounds.
Completed rounds are excluded here, so this view shows only the model's still-open weekly and monthly portfolios.
Latest available close for live rounds only. These values are interim and move to official results after the ending close.
These are the equal-run rankings this model belongs to. Each set compares a fixed roster only on rounds every model in that roster completed.
Weekly comparison set that adds Claude Opus 4.8 to the established model roster.
Claude Opus 4.8 
Grok 4.3 Claude Opus 4.7 
GPT-5.5 Gemini 3.1 Pro This model Higher benchmark score is better.
Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic · 23/23 scored rounds Grok 4.3 xAI · 23/23 scored rounds Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic · 23/23 scored rounds GPT-5.5 OpenAI · 23/23 scored rounds Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 23/23 scored rounds Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
Claude Opus 4.8 Grok 4.3 Claude Opus 4.7 GPT-5.5 Gemini 3.1 Pro Monthly comparison set that adds Claude Opus 4.8 to the established model roster.
Claude Opus 4.8 Grok 4.3 Claude Opus 4.7 Gemini 3.1 Pro This model GPT-5.5 Higher benchmark score is better.
Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic · 8/8 scored rounds Grok 4.3 xAI · 8/8 scored rounds Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic · 8/8 scored rounds Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 8/8 scored rounds GPT-5.5 OpenAI · 8/8 scored rounds Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
Claude Opus 4.8 Grok 4.3 Claude Opus 4.7 Gemini 3.1 Pro GPT-5.5 Original weekly comparison set for the first four CapitalBench models.
Grok 4.3 Claude Opus 4.7 GPT-5.5 Gemini 3.1 Pro This model Higher benchmark score is better.
Grok 4.3 xAI · 25/25 scored rounds Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic · 25/25 scored rounds GPT-5.5 OpenAI · 25/25 scored rounds Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 25/25 scored rounds Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
Grok 4.3 Claude Opus 4.7 GPT-5.5 Gemini 3.1 Pro Original monthly comparison set for the first four CapitalBench models.
Grok 4.3 Claude Opus 4.7 Gemini 3.1 Pro This model GPT-5.5 Higher benchmark score is better.
Grok 4.3 xAI · 11/11 scored rounds Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic · 11/11 scored rounds Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 11/11 scored rounds GPT-5.5 OpenAI · 11/11 scored rounds Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
Grok 4.3 Claude Opus 4.7 Gemini 3.1 Pro GPT-5.5 Weekly comparison set that starts when Claude Fable 5 joins the weekly benchmark roster.
GPT-5.5 Claude Fable 5 Grok 4.3 Gemini 3.1 Pro This model Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.7 Higher benchmark score is better.
GPT-5.5 OpenAI · 5/5 scored rounds Claude Fable 5 Anthropic · 5/5 scored rounds Grok 4.3 xAI · 5/5 scored rounds Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 5/5 scored rounds Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic · 5/5 scored rounds Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic · 5/5 scored rounds Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
GPT-5.5 Claude Fable 5 Grok 4.3 Gemini 3.1 Pro Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.7 Monthly comparison set that starts when Claude Fable 5 joins the monthly benchmark roster.
Claude Opus 4.8 GPT-5.5 Claude Opus 4.7 Grok 4.3 Claude Fable 5 Gemini 3.1 Pro This model Higher benchmark score is better.
Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic · 1/1 scored round GPT-5.5 OpenAI · 1/1 scored round Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic · 1/1 scored round Grok 4.3 xAI · 1/1 scored round Claude Fable 5 Anthropic · 1/1 scored round Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 1/1 scored round Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
Claude Opus 4.8 GPT-5.5 Claude Opus 4.7 Grok 4.3 Claude Fable 5 Gemini 3.1 Pro Weekly comparison set automatically opened when the Jul 10 official roster first required a new equal-run benchmark group across 8 models.
Weekly comparison set that starts when Grok 4.5 joins the weekly benchmark roster.
Monthly comparison set automatically opened when the Jul 10 official roster first required a new equal-run benchmark group across 8 models.
Monthly comparison set that starts when Grok 4.5 joins the monthly benchmark roster.
Bars to the right mean the portfolio return was higher than the S&P 500 return. Bars to the left mean it was lower.
Calculated from all saved official portfolios for this model, including open and completed rounds.
Usually favors equities, sectors, or thematic growth exposure.
Overweighting semiconductors and related Asian markets to capture potential upside from TSMC's earnings and ongoing AI hardware demand.
Allocating to semiconductors, South Korea, and Taiwan based on strong AI demand and positive catalysts from key industry players.
Allocated to Semiconductors and Technology for AI-driven momentum and TSMC catalysts, and Financials for upcoming major bank earnings.
Allocating to semiconductors for AI growth, aerospace and energy for geopolitical hedges, and short-term treasuries for stability.
Overweighting oil and energy due to geopolitical catalysts, with a tactical allocation to financials ahead of key bank earnings.
Allocating to energy and oil to capitalize on geopolitical catalysts, while using healthcare and short treasuries for defensive stability.
Overweight energy and oil due to geopolitical catalysts, balanced with defensive healthcare exposure.
Allocates to SP500 for core exposure, Energy for geopolitical catalysts, Financials for upcoming earnings, and Healthcare for defense.
Overweighting semiconductors and AI-related technology based on strong corporate catalysts from TSMC, Tesla, Broadcom, and TeraWulf.
Allocating to semiconductors and financials based on upcoming earnings catalysts, balanced with small caps for broader market exposure.
A balanced approach combining broad US equities, defensive sectors (Healthcare), potential beneficiaries of the rate environment (Financials), and a cash-like buffer (Short-Term Treasuries).
A balanced approach combining broad US equities, defensive sectors (healthcare), interest-rate sensitive sectors (financials), and short-term treasuries for stability.
A balanced approach utilizing broad US equities, defensive healthcare, and short-term Treasuries to navigate potential short-term volatility.
A balanced approach favoring broad US equities, defensive sectors like healthcare, and financials, with a cash-like buffer.
Allocating to high-momentum sectors (Semiconductors, Nasdaq 100) and strong-performing small caps to maximize short-term returns.
Overweight semiconductors and small caps for momentum and catalysts, balanced with defensive healthcare.
Overweighting semiconductors and communications based on strong corporate earnings and index inclusion catalysts, balanced with broad market exposure.
Overweighting semiconductors and technology based on strong earnings and AI demand, with tactical allocations to communications and consumer discretionary.
Overweighting healthcare and biotech based on positive regulatory news, while adding regional banks for diversification away from tech.
Overweight healthcare and biotech due to positive regulatory news. Diversify with small caps and equal-weight S&P 500 to mitigate mega-cap tech concentration risk.
Allocating to semiconductors based on Micron's strong earnings and guidance, balanced with defensive healthcare exposure.
Overweighting semiconductors and tech based on strong Micron earnings and guidance, balanced with equal-weight broad market exposure.
Overweighting semiconductors based on a specific positive catalyst (Micron earnings), balanced with small caps and regional banks for diversification and momentum.
Overweighting semiconductors based on strong Micron earnings and guidance, balanced with small caps for market broadening and healthcare for defensive positioning.
Allocating to Biotech, Regional Banks, and Small Caps based on their positive 7-day and 30-day returns, aiming to capture short-term momentum and relative strength against the S&P 500.
A balanced approach combining broad market equity with defensive sectors and safe-haven assets to navigate potential short-term volatility.
Allocating to high-momentum sectors (Semiconductors, Biotech) and regions (Taiwan, South Korea) to capitalize on strong recent trends over a one-week horizon.
A balanced approach favoring US equities with a mix of growth, value, and defensive sectors.
Overweighting high-momentum tech and semiconductors while maintaining a core S&P 500 position.
Overweighting technology and semiconductors to capture ongoing momentum, anchored by a core S&P 500 position.
Allocating to high-momentum sectors and regions, particularly semiconductors and South Korea, to capture ongoing trends over the one-week horizon.
Overweight technology and semiconductors to capture AI momentum.
Overweighting tech and semiconductor momentum ahead of the FOMC meeting, anticipating that a neutral Fed will allow the current growth trend to persist.
Overweighting high-momentum sectors like semiconductors and technology, along with South Korea, to capture ongoing market trends and maximize one-month relative returns.
Overweighting high-beta tech and momentum to ride the current market trend into the FOMC meeting.
Overweight US tech and semiconductors for momentum and growth, balanced with broad market exposure and a small gold hedge.
Balanced portfolio with equity and short-duration fixed income.
This portfolio balances potential equity upside with a defensive cash-like allocation.
Overweight growth sectors ahead of a likely neutral FOMC decision, balanced with broad market exposure.
Overweighting technology and energy to capture growth and commodity price tailwinds.
Defensive positioning ahead of CPI/PPI releases, favoring sectors with recent positive momentum.
A defensive allocation favoring short-term Treasuries, gold, and defensive equities to navigate a slowing economy with sticky inflation.
A defensive allocation favoring short-term Treasuries, Healthcare, and Energy to navigate potential volatility from upcoming inflation data.
A balanced approach combining broad US equities, growth sectors, and defensive assets to navigate market uncertainties.
A defensive allocation favoring short-term Treasuries, Healthcare, and Energy to navigate potential volatility from upcoming inflation data.
A balanced approach combining growth-oriented equities with defensive assets like healthcare, Treasuries, and gold to navigate market uncertainties.
Overweighting high-momentum tech and AI-adjacent themes to maximize short-term relative returns against the S&P 500.
Overweighting technology and AI-related sectors due to strong momentum and massive projected capital expenditures.
Allocation prioritizes assets with the highest 7-day and 30-day trailing returns to capture ongoing momentum in the technology and semiconductor-adjacent sectors.
Overweighting technology and semiconductors against a core S&P 500 holding to capture AI-driven growth and momentum.
Overweighting high-momentum tech and AI sectors to maximize short-term returns.
Allocates heavily to semiconductors, AI technology, South Korea, and solar to capitalize on extreme short-term price momentum and strong underlying thematic fundamentals.
Overweighting high-momentum technology and semiconductor sectors to maximize short-term relative returns against the S&P 500.
Overweighting AI, semiconductors, and related export markets to capitalize on massive projected infrastructure spending and strong trend persistence.
Overweighting technology and momentum to capture ongoing AI-driven strength.
Allocating to high-momentum technology and semiconductor assets, along with heavily correlated Asian markets (South Korea and Taiwan), to capture the ongoing AI infrastructure boom.
Allocating to high-momentum tech and semiconductor sectors to maximize short-term returns driven by AI investment themes.
Overweight semiconductors and Taiwan to capture AI momentum following Nvidia's earnings, balanced with utilities to capture M&A catalysts.
Overweight technology and semiconductors based on strong earnings and momentum, with a small cash buffer.
A balanced approach targeting high-growth sectors like energy and semiconductors while maintaining defensive positions in gold and short-term treasuries to mitigate risks from inflation and geopolitical uncertainties.
Semiconductors have exhibited exceptional momentum, returning over 29% in the last 30 days and 58% over the last 6 months. Despite broader macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, the sector's strong trend and potential AI-driven earnings growth make it a compelling candidate for continued outperformance over a one-month horizon.