AI benchmark tape
Benchmark Live AI capital allocation same brief, frozen portfolios, real returns AI Positioning Risk-seeking 75.5/100 As of September 4, 2026. Broad risk seeking Model Agreement Tight 4.0 point dispersion Insight Models found the weekly oracle asset The hindsight best asset was Crude Oil (USO) at +9.45%. 1 of 7 models held it, with +5.00% average allocation. The largest allocation came from Gemini 3.1 Pro at +35.00%. Crowded Position S&P 500 21.3% 9 models hold SPY Biggest Shift Agriculture Commodities up 23.6 pp vs prior weekly round Open Portfolio Leader GPT-5.5 currently leads at 1.2% interim result, not yet scored Latest Weekly Gemini 3.1 Pro led 3.5% vs S&P 0.1% Full Weekly History GPT-5.6 Sol leads score 8.5 across 31/60
Data Prices Sep 4 132/132 audited

Weekly comparison set

Weekly Set: Aug 19, 2026

Weekly comparison set automatically opened when the Aug 19 official roster first required a new equal-run benchmark group across 7 models.

Current Benchmark

Fairness Scope

Every ranked model in this set is scored only on rounds that all 7 listed models completed. If one model misses a resolved round, that round is excluded from this set for everyone.

Includes 3 earlier shared rounds completed by all 7 models before this roster began, plus 8 completed since the roster changed.

All comparison sets
Shared rounds11 Models7 Threshold6 StatusCurrent Benchmark
Equal-run benchmark

Current Weekly Benchmark

Every ranked model in this set completed the same 11 weekly rounds.

11 shared resolved rounds7 equal-run models rankedQualified at 6+ shared roundsNewest included round: CB-2026-08-27-1W
Shared resolved rounds

CapitalBench Score

A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation

Grok 4.3
GPT-5.6 Sol
Claude Fable 5
Grok 4.5
Claude Opus 5
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Grok 4.6
S&P 500
Max possible What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio. hindsight best asset

A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation

Grok 4.3 xAI · 11/11 scored rounds
7.4
GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI · 11/11 scored rounds
7.2
Claude Fable 5 Anthropic · 11/11 scored rounds
7.1
Grok 4.5 xAI · 11/11 scored rounds
6.4
Claude Opus 5 Anthropic · 11/11 scored rounds
6.1
Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 11/11 scored rounds
3.9
Grok 4.6 xAI · 11/11 scored rounds
2.6
S&P 500 S&P 500 · 11/11 scored rounds
-1.2
Max possible Hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio
What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio. 100.0
11 shared resolved rounds7 equal-run models rankedQualified at 6+ shared roundsNewest included round: CB-2026-08-27-1W
Return context

Average Return Details

Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.

xAI Grok 4.3
1.10%
OpenAI GPT-5.6 Sol
1.07%
Anthropic Claude Fable 5
1.06%
xAI Grok 4.5
0.96%
Anthropic Claude Opus 5
0.90%
Google Gemini 3.1 Pro
0.58%
xAI Grok 4.6
0.39%
S&P S&P 500
-0.18%
MAX Max possible What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio.
14.89%
Fairness rule: every ranked model completed every included round. A missed round is excluded from this set for everyone.
Risk and return

Who earned more return for the risk they took?

Average realized return and frozen portfolio risk across the same 11 shared weekly rounds.

Risk and return for models in this comparison setAverage frozen portfolio allocation risk is plotted horizontally and average realized return is plotted vertically across 11 shared rounds.-0.50%0.00%0.50%1.00%1.50%50637588100CapitalBench allocation riskAverage returnS&P 500Beat S&P with lower allocation riskGrok 4.3GPT-5.6 SolFable 5Grok 4.5Opus 5Gemini 3.1Grok 4.6
Risk and return for models in this comparison setAverage frozen portfolio allocation risk is plotted horizontally and average realized return is plotted vertically across 11 shared rounds.-0.50%0.00%0.50%1.00%1.50%50637588100CapitalBench allocation riskAverage returnS&P 500Grok 4.3GPT-5.6 SolFable 5Grok 4.5Opus 5Gemini 3.1Grok 4.6
Grok 4.3xAI
+1.10%average return75.7/100Risk-seeking+1.28 ppversus S&P 50052.9-90.3risk range

Return leaderGrok 4.3 led the models at +1.10% average return with a 75.7/100 risk score.

Benchmark testNo model beat the S&P 500 while taking the same or less allocation risk in this set.
Compare model groups

How do these results compare?

Grok 4.3 ranks first in both groups. The groups share 3 completed rounds. Aug 19 Weekly includes 8 more rounds. Claude Opus 4.8 appears only in Aug 13 Weekly.

7models in both 3rounds used by both Hardly changedchange in order No top model changed

Use Aug 19 Weekly as the more reliable ranking because it has 11 completed rounds. Aug 13 Weekly has 3 and needs 3 more before it has enough evidence to become the main ranking.

Compare these groups
Roster

Models In This Set

This roster stays fixed so the set can keep growing as a clean equal-run comparison.

Anthropic Claude Fable 5

anthropic-claude-fable-5

11 shared rounds in this set Anthropic Claude Opus 5

anthropic-claude-opus-5

11 shared rounds in this set Google Gemini 3.1 Pro

google-gemini-3-1-pro

11 shared rounds in this set OpenAI GPT-5.6 Sol

openai-gpt-5-6-sol

11 shared rounds in this set xAI Grok 4.3

xai-grok-4-3

11 shared rounds in this set xAI Grok 4.5

xai-grok-4-5

11 shared rounds in this set xAI Grok 4.6

xai-grok-4-6

11 shared rounds in this set
Round audit

Included And Excluded Rounds

Included rounds count toward the score. Excluded rounds are resolved rounds inside this comparison history where at least one set model was missing.

Included rounds CB-2026-08-13-1W, CB-2026-08-15-1W, CB-2026-08-18-1W, CB-2026-08-19-1W, CB-2026-08-20-1W, CB-2026-08-21-1W, CB-2026-08-23-1W, CB-2026-08-24-1W, CB-2026-08-25-1W, CB-2026-08-26-1W, CB-2026-08-27-1W
Excluded for fairness None
Calculation

How The Score Is Calculated

CapitalBench Score equals total model return across included shared rounds divided by total max-possible return across those same rounds, multiplied by 100. Max possible is the best eligible asset in each included round in hindsight.

Scoring details