Live portfolios 21 21 open rounds
Completed rounds 11 scored rounds
Beat S&P 500 45.5% all completed tracks
Portfolio Minus S&P 500 +0.57 pp completed average
Portfolio pattern

How Does This Model Tend To Invest?

Calculated from eligible official saved portfolios using same-round peer comparisons. How labels and pills are determined

Saved portfolios 32
Average holdings 2.2
Average largest position 63.1%
Most common top holding S&P 500 (SPY)
Typical approach Steady allocator

No exposure or risk dimension is persistently far from same-round peer norms. Portfolios averaged 2.2 holdings, a 63.1% largest position, and 52.3% turnover.

Moderate evidence · based on 32 saved portfolios.
Near peer mix2.2 holdings · 63% top52% turnoverNow: SPY 53%
Risk taking 70.5 / 100 0 defensive to 100 aggressive
Typical largest position 63.1% average top holding
Typical holdings 2.2 average non-zero positions
Portfolio turnover 52.3% average change between rounds
Portfolio Difference / Combined

How different is this portfolio from the group?

A score of 60.7 means about 60.7% of allocation would need to change to match the average portfolio selected by the other models.

Compare every model
60.7 / 100
0 same as group to 100 completely different
monthly 71.4 15 same-round comparisons
weekly 50.0 15 same-round comparisons
Recent-winner tilt · Combined

Does this model follow recent winners?

Leans toward recent laggards. Combined gives monthly and weekly behavior equal weight. The score uses only prices available before each portfolio was frozen.

28.4 / 100
+8.3 points vs peers
monthly 35.7 0.00% in the top 20%
weekly 21.0 0.00% in the top 20%
Structured decision process

How the model builds its shortlist

Candidate-ledger evidence is available for 2 of 32 eligible portfolios. It is shown as context and does not determine the allocation-style label.

Avg candidates7.5 SPY included100.0% Forecast spread5.1% Stated confidence53.4%
Coverage — forecasts 2/32 · confidence 32/32 · key risks 32/32
Overall risk appetite

Growth

Usually favors equities, sectors, or thematic growth exposure.

3.46 / 5 allocation-weighted score
Grok 4.63.46
40.9% high-risk exposure 15.6% technology exposure 4.8% defensive holdings
Most frequently held assets
S&P 500 (SPY)US Broad Market 59.4% held 48.4% avg
Cybersecurity (CIBR)AI and Technology 34.4% held 11.6% avg
Aerospace and Defense (ITA)US Industry 25.0% held 8.6% avg
Software (IGV)AI and Technology 9.4% held 3.1% avg
Silver (SLV)Commodities 9.4% held 3.0% avg
Healthcare Sector (XLV)US Sector 9.4% held 2.8% avg
Gold (IAU)Commodities 9.4% held 2.7% avg
Average allocation by category
US Broad Market48.4%
AI and Technology15.6%
US Sector13.0%
US Industry10.6%
Commodities6.7%
International Equity3.4%
US Style Factor2.2%
Current portfolios

What Is This Model Holding Now?

21 open portfolios across weekly and monthly tests. Completed rounds are excluded.

Weekly5 open portfolios
8 assets
Completed rounds are excluded from this live view.Next scoring target: 2026-09-08
Still in progress

How Are Its Open Portfolios Doing?

Latest available close for live rounds only. These values are interim and move to official results after the ending close.

Weekly live
Portfolio
+0.01%
S&P 500
+0.23%
Portfolio Minus S&P 500
-0.22 pp
3 open tests
Monthly live
Portfolio
+0.06%
S&P 500
+0.24%
Portfolio Minus S&P 500
-0.18 pp
14 open tests
See all 17 open round returns
CB-2026-09-02-1M monthly / close 2026-09-04 Portfolio -0.25% S&P 500 -0.39% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 +0.14 pp CB-2026-09-01-1M monthly / close 2026-09-04 Portfolio +0.66% S&P 500 +0.66% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 0.00 pp CB-2026-08-30-1M monthly / close 2026-09-04 Portfolio +0.41% S&P 500 +0.41% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 0.00 pp CB-2026-08-27-1M monthly / close 2026-09-04 Portfolio +0.11% S&P 500 +0.11% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 0.00 pp CB-2026-08-26-1M monthly / close 2026-09-04 Portfolio -0.08% S&P 500 -0.12% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 +0.04 pp CB-2026-08-25-1M monthly / close 2026-09-04 Portfolio -1.78% S&P 500 +0.54% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -2.32 pp CB-2026-08-24-1M monthly / close 2026-09-04 Portfolio -0.88% S&P 500 +0.56% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -1.44 pp CB-2026-08-23-1M monthly / close 2026-09-04 Portfolio +0.88% S&P 500 +0.88% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 0.00 pp CB-2026-08-21-1M monthly / close 2026-09-04 Portfolio +0.58% S&P 500 +0.58% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 0.00 pp CB-2026-08-20-1M monthly / close 2026-09-04 Portfolio +1.00% S&P 500 +1.00% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 0.00 pp CB-2026-08-19-1M monthly / close 2026-09-04 Portfolio +0.15% S&P 500 +0.15% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 0.00 pp CB-2026-08-18-1M monthly / close 2026-09-04 Portfolio +0.36% S&P 500 +0.36% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 0.00 pp CB-2026-08-15-1M monthly / close 2026-09-04 Portfolio -0.32% S&P 500 -0.32% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 0.00 pp CB-2026-08-13-1M monthly / close 2026-09-04 Portfolio +0.03% S&P 500 -0.99% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 +1.02 pp CB-2026-09-02-1W weekly / close 2026-09-04 Portfolio -0.82% S&P 500 -0.39% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -0.43 pp CB-2026-09-01-1W weekly / close 2026-09-04 Portfolio +0.43% S&P 500 +0.66% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -0.22 pp CB-2026-08-30-1W weekly / close 2026-09-04 Portfolio +0.41% S&P 500 +0.41% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 0.00 pp
Completed results

How Has This Model Performed?

Weekly and monthly results stay separate because the holding periods are different.

Weekly record

0 wins / 11 completed

Avg return +0.39%
S&P 500 -0.18%
Avg Portfolio Minus S&P 500 +0.57 pp
Hit rate 45.5%
Avg rank 5.5
Best round CB-2026-08-13-1W
Monthly record

No completed rounds

Avg return n/a
S&P 500 n/a
Avg Portfolio Minus S&P 500 n/a
Hit rate n/a
Avg rank n/a
Best round n/a
Round by round

When Did It Beat The S&P 500?

Bars to the right beat the S&P 500. Bars to the left trailed it.

Ranking context

Where Does It Rank Against Comparable Models?

Each group uses only rounds completed by every included model.

See every comparison group 8
Weekly · Current

Aug 19, 2026 roster

Weekly comparison set automatically opened when the Aug 19 official roster first required a new equal-run benchmark group across 7 models.

Open full set
#7 Rank in set 2.6 CapitalBench Score 4.3% Total return 11 Shared rounds

Current Weekly Benchmark

CapitalBench Score

A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation

Grok 4.3
GPT-5.6 Sol
Claude Fable 5
Grok 4.5
Claude Opus 5
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Grok 4.6 This model
S&P 500
Max possible What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio. hindsight best asset

A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation

Grok 4.3 xAI · 11/11 scored rounds
7.4
GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI · 11/11 scored rounds
7.2
Claude Fable 5 Anthropic · 11/11 scored rounds
7.1
Grok 4.5 xAI · 11/11 scored rounds
6.4
Claude Opus 5 Anthropic · 11/11 scored rounds
6.1
Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 11/11 scored rounds
3.9
Grok 4.6 xAI · 11/11 scored rounds
2.6
S&P 500 S&P 500 · 11/11 scored rounds
-1.2
Max possible Hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio
What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio. 100.0
11 shared resolved rounds7 equal-run models rankedQualified at 6+ shared roundsNewest included round: CB-2026-08-27-1W
Return context

Average Return Details

Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.

xAI Grok 4.3
1.10%
OpenAI GPT-5.6 Sol
1.07%
Anthropic Claude Fable 5
1.06%
xAI Grok 4.5
0.96%
Anthropic Claude Opus 5
0.90%
Google Gemini 3.1 Pro
0.58%
xAI Grok 4.6
0.39%
S&P S&P 500
-0.18%
MAX Max possible What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio.
14.89%
Fairness rule: every ranked model completed every included round. A missed round is excluded from this set for everyone.
Model-specific findings

What Has CapitalBench Learned About Grok 4.6?

Findings tied directly to this model's decisions or completed results.

Portfolio DifferenceAs of Sep 8
50% monthly / 50% weekly7 models

Grok 4.3 invests most differently from the group

Claude Opus 5 is most like the group at 45.5/100. Monthly and weekly behavior receive equal weight.

Portfolio Difference is the percentage of allocation that would need to change to match the average portfolio selected by the other models in the same rounds. Different does not mean better.

Medium confidenceMath: deterministicData through Sep 8, 2026
Highest Portfolio Difference
65.9/100
Lowest Portfolio Difference
45.5/100
Model BehaviorAs of Sep 4
Model behavior profiles12 models

Model allocation styles are separating into clear behavior profiles

Claude Fable 5.1 has the highest average risk-taking score at 80.2/100. Grok 4.6 has the largest average top holding at +63.12%. Claude Opus 4.8 has the lowest measured turnover at +43.35%.

Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.

High confidenceMath: deterministicData through Sep 4, 2026
Highest Average Risk Taking Score
80.2/100
Largest Average Top Holding
+63.1%
Lowest Average Turnover
+43.4%
Decision history

What Did It Choose In Each Round?

Open a row to see the full portfolio, rationale, and audit files.

Round Track Window Portfolio Result
CB-2026-09-04-1W official-v3-20260904-weekly-clean weekly 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-15 SOFTWARE 35.0%CYBERSECURITY 35.0%SP500 30.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Software (IGV) 35.0% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 35.0% S&P 500 (SPY) 30.0%
Rationale

SPY is near a 52-week high with low 5-session dispersion while software and cyber show large relative pullbacks after strong prior active returns; CPI/PPI land inside the week and a 58% hike probability plus hawkish Fed dissent raise rate-sensitive risk, so the week is mixed rather than a clean continuation or reversal tape.

CB-2026-09-04-1M official-v3-20260904-monthly-clean monthly 2026-09-08 to 2026-10-08 CYBERSECURITY 35.0%AEROSPACE_DEFENSE 35.0%INDUSTRIALS 30.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Cybersecurity (CIBR) 35.0% Aerospace and Defense (ITA) 35.0% Industrials Sector (XLI) 30.0%
Rationale

SPY is near a 52-week high with low horizon vol while cross-asset 5-session returns are wide (oil/crypto/EM vs software/cyber/defense). Sticky PCE, mixed payrolls with downward revisions, and 58% implied odds of a September hike plus a mid-window FOMC create a mixed one-month setup rather than a clean continuation or reversal regime.

CB-2026-09-03-1W official-v3-20260903-weekly weekly 2026-09-04 to 2026-09-14 CYBERSECURITY 35.0%METALS_MINING 35.0%SILVER 30.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Cybersecurity (CIBR) 35.0% Metals and Mining (XME) 35.0% Silver (SLV) 30.0%
Rationale

SPY is near a 52-week high with modest 5-session gains while 5s active-return dispersion is only 2.20% and equal-weight lags. The window includes unknown NFP (Sep 4) and CPI (Sep 11) plus Labor Day, so mega-cap beta is fragile. Oil and Brazil show short continuation after large moves; several high-quality names (cyber, metals, silver, biotech, semis) show sharp relative pullbacks after stronger prior windows.

CB-2026-09-03-1M official-v3-20260903-monthly monthly 2026-09-04 to 2026-10-05 CYBERSECURITY 35.0%AEROSPACE_DEFENSE 35.0%SP500 30.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Cybersecurity (CIBR) 35.0% Aerospace and Defense (ITA) 35.0% S&P 500 (SPY) 30.0%
Rationale

SPY is near a 52-week high with modest 5-session gains while many cyclicals, tech, and defense names show larger recent drawdowns; incoming payrolls, CPI, and the mid-September FOMC create two-way event risk, so one-month outcomes look mixed rather than a clean continuation or reversal regime.

CB-2026-09-02-1W official-v3-20260902-weekly weekly 2026-09-03 to 2026-09-11 SILVER 35.0%GOLD 35.0%MATERIALS 30.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Silver (SLV) 35.0% Gold (IAU) 35.0% Materials Sector (XLB) 30.0%
Rationale

SPY is in a three-session decline into a dense labor/inflation week with rising Treasury yields, while oil jumped on Hormuz-related supply news and precious metals sold off after strong prior-window gains. Short-horizon breadth is weak (about 25% of assets positive over 5 sessions) but 21-session breadth remains majority-positive, so the week is mixed continuation in energy versus pullback/reversal tests in metals and cyclicals.

CB-2026-09-02-1M official-v3-20260902-monthly monthly 2026-09-03 to 2026-10-05 FINANCIALS 35.0%SMALL_VALUE 35.0%SP500 30.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Financials Sector (XLF) 35.0% US Small-Cap Value (IWN) 35.0% S&P 500 (SPY) 30.0%
Rationale

SPY is slightly lower after a three-day decline while crude spiked above $90, yields rose, and FedWatch priced a 66% chance of a September hike. Short-horizon breadth is weak (about 25% of assets positive over 5 sessions) against still-positive 21-session breadth, so oil continuation coexists with rate-sensitive and cyclical pullbacks rather than a single regime.

CB-2026-09-01-1W official-v3-20260901-weekly weekly 2026-09-02 to 2026-09-10 GOLD 35.0%HEALTHCARE 35.0%SILVER 30.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Gold (IAU) 35.0% Healthcare Sector (XLV) 35.0% Silver (SLV) 30.0%
Rationale

SPY is near a 52-week high with low 5-session active-return dispersion (1.92%) and only 39% of assets positive over 5 sessions after a stronger 21-session breadth. Sticky PCE/CPI, a hawkish Warsh speech, and the August jobs print on Sep 4 dominate a short holiday-shortened week; equal-weight lagged cap-weight, so mean-reversion in quality pullbacks is more plausible than chasing high-vol continuations.

CB-2026-09-01-1M official-v3-20260901-monthly monthly 2026-09-02 to 2026-10-02 SP500 100.0% Pending
Full portfolio
S&P 500 (SPY) 100.0%
Rationale

SPY is near a 52-week high after an August gain while equal-weight lagged, breadth was mixed on the latest session, and the one-month window includes FOMC plus CPI/payrolls with sticky PCE and a 4.75% 10-year. Mega-cap tech still has relative strength; rate-sensitive losers lack a clear in-window easing catalyst.

CB-2026-08-30-1W official-v3-20260830-weekly weekly 2026-08-31 to 2026-09-08 SP500 100.0% Pending
Full portfolio
S&P 500 (SPY) 100.0%
Rationale

Five-session active-return dispersion is only 1.62% with 40.6% of assets positive versus 73.9% over 21 sessions, SPY is 1.1% from its 52-week high, and a hawkish Chair speech plus a jobs print and Labor Day close sit inside the week, so breadth is mixed and a one-week SPY-relative edge is thin.

CB-2026-08-30-1M official-v3-20260830-monthly monthly 2026-08-31 to 2026-09-30 SP500 100.0% Pending
Full portfolio
S&P 500 (SPY) 100.0%
Rationale

SPY is within 1.1% of a 52-week high after a modest weekly gain while equal-weight lagged, breadth on the 5-session window is only ~41% positive, and a hawkish Fed speech plus a mid-September FOMC with SEP sit inside the scoring window. Rate-sensitive and high-beta names face event risk; recent losers lack a clean, supported one-month reversal catalyst.

Audit and data Public Audit Packets For This Model