CB-2026-10-04-1W

# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task

You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.

Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one week and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.

The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.

Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.

Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.

For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.

CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:

1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.

You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.

Required JSON format:

{
  "round_id": "<round_id>",
  "model_id": "<model_id>",
  "provider": "<provider>",
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
  "dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
  "market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
  "candidate_assessments": [
    {
      "option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
      "origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
      "mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
      "p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
      "p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
      "excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
      "excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
      "excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
      "recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
      "evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
      "rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
    }
  ],
  "top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
  "prefer_spy": <boolean>,
  "portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
  "key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}

Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.

round_id: CB-2026-10-04-1W
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-10-04-1W
description: One-week market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-10-04'
decision_deadline: '2026-10-05T13:25:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v3.0
model_roster_version: portfolio-v3-roster-0b6d5af936fa
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-10-05T02:27:08.322040+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-6-astra
- anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
- xai-grok-4-6
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
  min_holdings: 1
  max_holdings: 3
  allocation_increment_pct: 5
  min_allocation_pct: 5
  max_total_allocation_pct: 100
  allow_cash: true
  allow_benchmark_asset: true
  max_economic_exposure_pct: null
entry_rule: Use the October 2, 2026 official adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv; CASH is fixed at 1.0.
exit_rule: Use the October 9, 2026 official adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv; CASH is fixed at 1.0.
entry_date: '2026-10-02'
exit_date: '2026-10-09'
created_at: '2026-10-05T02:27:08.322040+00:00'
notes: 'Weekend decision round using the latest completed U.S. session, Friday October 2, as the entry date. Fresh direct-public-source research cutoff: 2026-10-05T02:27:00Z.'

# Market Briefing — October 4, 2026

Research cutoff: 2026-10-05T02:27:00Z. The latest completed U.S. session is Friday, October 2.

This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.

## Current macro picture

September nonfarm payroll employment increased by 29,000 and the unemployment rate was 4.2%. July payroll growth was revised from 21,000 to a decline of 10,000, while August was revised from 162,000 to 133,000; together, the two prior months were revised down by 60,000. Labor-force participation was 61.8%, the employment-population ratio was 59.2%, average hourly earnings increased 0.1% over the month and 3.0% over the year, and the average workweek was 34.4 hours. The September estimate is preliminary, and the reported one-month payroll change was smaller than the statistical-significance threshold described by the reporting agency.

Manufacturing remained in expansion in September. The headline manufacturing diffusion index was 54.5, with production at 56.7, new orders at 55.3, order backlogs at 56.4, and employment at 52.7. Input-price pressure increased: the prices index rose 6.8 points to 77.9. Survey commentary was more cautious than the index readings, with 60% of comments categorized as negative and recurring concern about pricing volatility, trade policy, and geopolitical disruption.

August consumption and inflation data showed nominal consumer spending up 0.9% and real spending up 0.6% over the month. Personal income rose 0.2%, disposable income rose 0.3%, and the saving rate was 4.1%. The PCE price index rose 0.3% over the month and 3.4% over the year; excluding food and energy, it rose 0.2% over the month and 3.0% over the year. These data incorporated an annual statistical update with revisions extending back to 2021.

The third estimate of second-quarter real GDP was a 2.2% annualized increase after revised 2.5% growth in the first quarter. Consumer spending, investment, and exports contributed to the second-quarter increase.

## Policy, rates, and markets

At its September meeting, the Federal Reserve raised the federal-funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% in a unanimous vote. Median participant projections for 2026 were 2.3% real GDP growth, 4.1% unemployment, 3.7% PCE inflation, 3.4% core PCE inflation, and a 4.1% year-end federal-funds rate. Those projections are conditional individual assessments rather than a promised policy path.

On October 2, constant-maturity Treasury yields were 4.46% at one year, 4.83% at two years, 5.06% at five years, 5.28% at ten years, and 5.63% at thirty years. Compared with September 30, those yields were lower by 8, 5, 3, 1, and 1 basis points, respectively. The figures are interpolated from indicative bid quotations rather than transaction prices.

U.S. equities rose on October 2. The S&P 500 gained 0.7% to 7,722.72, the Dow gained 0.5% to 51,176.96, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.2% to 27,190.86, and the Russell 2000 gained 0.9% to 2,832.90. Over the full week, the respective changes were -0.3%, -1.3%, +0.5%, and -0.2%. Official entry prices for this round are supplied separately in the frozen CapitalBench price file.

Commercial U.S. crude inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve were 427.320 million barrels in the week ending September 25, up 0.922 million from the prior week and 10.774 million from the comparable week a year earlier. Weekly inventory estimates are survey based and may be revised.

The European Central Bank raised its three key policy rates by 25 basis points in September, placing the deposit rate at 2.50%. Its baseline projected 2026 headline inflation of 3.0% and growth of 0.9%, while identifying upside inflation risks and downside growth risks.

## Events within the horizons

Before the weekly exit, scheduled releases include September ISM services on October 5, August U.S. trade and the energy outlook on October 6, weekly petroleum data on October 7, and August wholesale sales and inventories on October 8.

Before the monthly exit, the calendar also includes September CPI on October 14; September PPI and retail sales on October 15; housing starts on October 20; durable-goods orders and new-home sales on October 27; an FOMC meeting on October 27-28; advance trade, retail, and wholesale indicators on October 28; advance third-quarter GDP and September PCE data on October 29; and the Employment Cost Index on October 30. September construction spending is scheduled for 10:00 ET on November 2, after the regular equity-market open.

The current evidence combines slower payroll growth and downward employment revisions with ongoing manufacturing expansion, positive real consumption growth, elevated inflation readings, high manufacturing input-price pressure, and long-term Treasury yields above 5%. Upcoming releases may materially change this mix; their outcomes were unknown at the research cutoff.

Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.

Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.

Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.

Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.

Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.

Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.

Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.

Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.

Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.

Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.

Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.

Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.

Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.

Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.

Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.

Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.

Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.

Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.

Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.

Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.

Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.

Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.

Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.

Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.

Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.

Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.

Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.

Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.

Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.

Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.

Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.

Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.

Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.

Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.

Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.

Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.

Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.

Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.

Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.

Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.

Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.

Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.

Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.

Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.

Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.

Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.

options:
  - id: CASH
    name: Cash / Do Not Invest
    symbol: null
    tiingo_symbol: null
    asset_class: cash
    category: cash
    option_group: cash
    risk_bucket: cash
    currency: USD
    is_cash: true
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."

  - id: SHORT_TREASURY
    name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
    symbol: BIL
    tiingo_symbol: BIL
    asset_class: cash_like
    category: treasury_bills
    option_group: cash_and_short_duration
    risk_bucket: low
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."

  - id: SP500
    name: S&P 500
    symbol: SPY
    tiingo_symbol: SPY
    asset_class: equity
    category: broad_us_equity
    option_group: us_broad_market
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    is_benchmark: true
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."

  - id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
    name: Total US Stock Market
    symbol: VTI
    tiingo_symbol: VTI
    asset_class: equity
    category: broad_us_equity
    option_group: us_broad_market
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."

  - id: NASDAQ100
    name: Nasdaq 100
    symbol: QQQ
    tiingo_symbol: QQQ
    asset_class: equity
    category: growth_equity
    option_group: us_growth_and_technology
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."

  - id: LARGE_GROWTH
    name: US Large-Cap Growth
    symbol: IWF
    tiingo_symbol: IWF
    asset_class: equity
    category: style_factor
    option_group: us_style_factor
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."

  - id: LARGE_VALUE
    name: US Large-Cap Value
    symbol: IWD
    tiingo_symbol: IWD
    asset_class: equity
    category: style_factor
    option_group: us_style_factor
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."

  - id: MID_CAP
    name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
    symbol: IJH
    tiingo_symbol: IJH
    asset_class: equity
    category: size_factor
    option_group: us_size_factor
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."

  - id: SMALL_CAP
    name: US Small-Cap Stocks
    symbol: IWM
    tiingo_symbol: IWM
    asset_class: equity
    category: size_factor
    option_group: us_size_factor
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."

  - id: SMALL_VALUE
    name: US Small-Cap Value
    symbol: IWN
    tiingo_symbol: IWN
    asset_class: equity
    category: style_and_size_factor
    option_group: us_style_factor
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."

  - id: DIVIDEND
    name: US Dividend Equities
    symbol: SCHD
    tiingo_symbol: SCHD
    asset_class: equity
    category: dividend_equity
    option_group: us_factor_equity
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."

  - id: LOW_VOL
    name: US Low Volatility Equities
    symbol: SPLV
    tiingo_symbol: SPLV
    asset_class: equity
    category: low_volatility_factor
    option_group: us_factor_equity
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."

  - id: MOMENTUM
    name: US Momentum Equities
    symbol: MTUM
    tiingo_symbol: MTUM
    asset_class: equity
    category: momentum_factor
    option_group: us_factor_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."

  - id: TECHNOLOGY
    name: Technology Sector
    symbol: XLK
    tiingo_symbol: XLK
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."

  - id: COMMUNICATIONS
    name: Communication Services Sector
    symbol: XLC
    tiingo_symbol: XLC
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."

  - id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
    name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
    symbol: XLY
    tiingo_symbol: XLY
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."

  - id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
    name: Consumer Staples Sector
    symbol: XLP
    tiingo_symbol: XLP
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."

  - id: HEALTHCARE
    name: Healthcare Sector
    symbol: XLV
    tiingo_symbol: XLV
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."

  - id: FINANCIALS
    name: Financials Sector
    symbol: XLF
    tiingo_symbol: XLF
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."

  - id: INDUSTRIALS
    name: Industrials Sector
    symbol: XLI
    tiingo_symbol: XLI
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."

  - id: ENERGY
    name: Energy Sector
    symbol: XLE
    tiingo_symbol: XLE
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."

  - id: MATERIALS
    name: Materials Sector
    symbol: XLB
    tiingo_symbol: XLB
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."

  - id: UTILITIES
    name: Utilities Sector
    symbol: XLU
    tiingo_symbol: XLU
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."

  - id: REAL_ESTATE
    name: Real Estate Sector
    symbol: XLRE
    tiingo_symbol: XLRE
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."

  - id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
    name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
    symbol: IEF
    tiingo_symbol: IEF
    asset_class: bond
    category: treasury_duration
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."

  - id: LONG_TREASURY
    name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
    symbol: TLT
    tiingo_symbol: TLT
    asset_class: bond
    category: treasury_duration
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."

  - id: TIPS
    name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
    symbol: TIP
    tiingo_symbol: TIP
    asset_class: bond
    category: inflation_linked_bonds
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."

  - id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
    name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
    symbol: LQD
    tiingo_symbol: LQD
    asset_class: bond
    category: corporate_credit
    option_group: credit
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."

  - id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
    name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
    symbol: HYG
    tiingo_symbol: HYG
    asset_class: bond
    category: corporate_credit
    option_group: credit
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."

  - id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
    name: US Aggregate Bond Market
    symbol: AGG
    tiingo_symbol: AGG
    asset_class: bond
    category: aggregate_bonds
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."

  - id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
    name: Developed Markets ex-US
    symbol: VEA
    tiingo_symbol: VEA
    asset_class: equity
    category: international_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."

  - id: EMERGING_MARKETS
    name: Emerging Markets
    symbol: VWO
    tiingo_symbol: VWO
    asset_class: equity
    category: international_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."

  - id: EUROPE
    name: Europe Equities
    symbol: VGK
    tiingo_symbol: VGK
    asset_class: equity
    category: regional_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."

  - id: JAPAN
    name: Japan Equities
    symbol: EWJ
    tiingo_symbol: EWJ
    asset_class: equity
    category: regional_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."

  - id: CHINA
    name: China Equities
    symbol: MCHI
    tiingo_symbol: MCHI
    asset_class: equity
    category: regional_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."

  - id: INDIA
    name: India Equities
    symbol: INDA
    tiingo_symbol: INDA
    asset_class: equity
    category: regional_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."

  - id: GOLD
    name: Gold
    symbol: IAU
    tiingo_symbol: IAU
    asset_class: commodity
    category: precious_metals
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."

  - id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
    name: Broad Commodities
    symbol: PDBC
    tiingo_symbol: PDBC
    asset_class: commodity
    category: broad_commodities
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."

  - id: SEMICONDUCTORS
    name: Semiconductors
    symbol: SMH
    tiingo_symbol: SMH
    asset_class: equity
    category: thematic_equity
    option_group: ai_and_technology
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."

  - id: SOFTWARE
    name: Software
    symbol: IGV
    tiingo_symbol: IGV
    asset_class: equity
    category: thematic_equity
    option_group: ai_and_technology
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."

  - id: BROAD_AI_TECH
    name: Broad AI Technology
    symbol: AIQ
    tiingo_symbol: AIQ
    asset_class: equity
    category: thematic_equity
    option_group: ai_and_technology
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."

  - id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
    name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
    symbol: ARKQ
    tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
    asset_class: equity
    category: thematic_equity
    option_group: ai_and_technology
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."

  - id: CYBERSECURITY
    name: Cybersecurity
    symbol: CIBR
    tiingo_symbol: CIBR
    asset_class: equity
    category: thematic_equity
    option_group: ai_and_technology
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."

  - id: SOLAR
    name: Solar Energy
    symbol: TAN
    tiingo_symbol: TAN
    asset_class: equity
    category: thematic_equity
    option_group: clean_energy
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."

  - id: METALS_MINING
    name: Metals and Mining
    symbol: XME
    tiingo_symbol: XME
    asset_class: equity
    category: commodity_equity
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."

  - id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
    name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
    symbol: RSP
    tiingo_symbol: RSP
    asset_class: equity
    category: broad_us_equity
    option_group: us_broad_market
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."

  - id: BIOTECH
    name: Biotechnology
    symbol: XBI
    tiingo_symbol: XBI
    asset_class: equity
    category: industry_equity
    option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."

  - id: REGIONAL_BANKS
    name: Regional Banks
    symbol: KRE
    tiingo_symbol: KRE
    asset_class: equity
    category: industry_equity
    option_group: us_industry
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."

  - id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
    name: Aerospace and Defense
    symbol: ITA
    tiingo_symbol: ITA
    asset_class: equity
    category: industry_equity
    option_group: us_industry
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."

  - id: CANADA
    name: Canada Equities
    symbol: EWC
    tiingo_symbol: EWC
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."

  - id: UNITED_KINGDOM
    name: United Kingdom Equities
    symbol: EWU
    tiingo_symbol: EWU
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."

  - id: AUSTRALIA
    name: Australia Equities
    symbol: EWA
    tiingo_symbol: EWA
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."

  - id: SOUTH_KOREA
    name: South Korea Equities
    symbol: EWY
    tiingo_symbol: EWY
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."

  - id: TAIWAN
    name: Taiwan Equities
    symbol: EWT
    tiingo_symbol: EWT
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."

  - id: BRAZIL
    name: Brazil Equities
    symbol: EWZ
    tiingo_symbol: EWZ
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."

  - id: MEXICO
    name: Mexico Equities
    symbol: EWW
    tiingo_symbol: EWW
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."

  - id: SOUTH_AFRICA
    name: South Africa Equities
    symbol: EZA
    tiingo_symbol: EZA
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."

  - id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
    name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
    symbol: MBB
    tiingo_symbol: MBB
    asset_class: bond
    category: securitized_bonds
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."

  - id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
    name: Municipal Bonds
    symbol: MUB
    tiingo_symbol: MUB
    asset_class: bond
    category: municipal_bonds
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: low
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."

  - id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
    name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
    symbol: EMB
    tiingo_symbol: EMB
    asset_class: bond
    category: emerging_market_debt
    option_group: credit
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."

  - id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
    name: International Aggregate Bonds
    symbol: BNDX
    tiingo_symbol: BNDX
    asset_class: bond
    category: international_bonds
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."

  - id: SILVER
    name: Silver
    symbol: SLV
    tiingo_symbol: SLV
    asset_class: commodity
    category: precious_metals
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."

  - id: COPPER
    name: Copper
    symbol: CPER
    tiingo_symbol: CPER
    asset_class: commodity
    category: industrial_metals
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."

  - id: AGRICULTURE
    name: Agriculture Commodities
    symbol: DBA
    tiingo_symbol: DBA
    asset_class: commodity
    category: agriculture
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."

  - id: OIL
    name: Crude Oil
    symbol: USO
    tiingo_symbol: USO
    asset_class: commodity
    category: energy_commodities
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."

  - id: US_DOLLAR
    name: US Dollar
    symbol: UUP
    tiingo_symbol: UUP
    asset_class: currency
    category: currency
    option_group: currencies
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."

  - id: EURO
    name: Euro
    symbol: FXE
    tiingo_symbol: FXE
    asset_class: currency
    category: currency
    option_group: currencies
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."

  - id: YEN
    name: Japanese Yen
    symbol: FXY
    tiingo_symbol: FXY
    asset_class: currency
    category: currency
    option_group: currencies
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."

  - id: BITCOIN_ETF
    name: Bitcoin ETF
    symbol: IBIT
    tiingo_symbol: IBIT
    asset_class: crypto_proxy
    category: crypto_asset
    option_group: crypto_proxies
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."

  - id: ETHEREUM_ETF
    name: Ethereum ETF
    symbol: ETHA
    tiingo_symbol: ETHA
    asset_class: crypto_proxy
    category: crypto_asset
    option_group: crypto_proxies
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."

{
  "algorithm": "sha256",
  "files": {
    "briefing.md": "2be55e79cbacdf50251358420f8851ed8ebd9700ede2c515652ef8f68466e8c5",
    "manifest.yaml": "993c872945daffea70b0b5cd12fdf096342df574277bf36d674628fe8f6035c6",
    "market_data/decision_context_source_history.json": "2564e1ab0296d6800f7ac0fecbaf983a6e10db406a09a96f3ad9a368895140b2",
    "market_data/universe_decision_context.csv": "b4e2ef36c58f15a24d5af1e0b1cb1686363900ec8c9a88a6eb1627f5b9599e14",
    "market_data/universe_decision_context.json": "0b341d73559c1e959f7c4a724d2977e84718ecc5303b1e7c27cf3edcd67a86cd",
    "market_data/universe_decision_context.md": "79658091bf1cbc400f50e2e7deb8cd778b8ebefe4525a1308c8ea5a82a104d39",
    "market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json": "1ce57a15f7c1202a53ed46b59d5f46b0994d28e750c874136f5c9495d9eb7c10",
    "market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md": "d831c88555000415e9432ed678fea3b915aedc734db17eccca1847336929f6c7",
    "options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
    "prompt.md": "c86dfbb217e032991acc64cd3d0bcbb7f26d32639a67b7473af5122ac2230431",
    "submission_schema.json": "fb15e640b97fa100237112e5d6bd8548696c72f75ce22b2d3ae2bf212e10166d"
  }
}